World Politics · resolved market
Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe4d237a876c61f4a395ac1652c767bd636f02722730dc1f930c5b9ac4b0911d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4813…ae12backed Yes | 7c | 11,111$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 55c | 9,842$5,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,369.29 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 16c | 5,703$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.73 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 74c | 3,900$2,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.31 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,771$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.37 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 26c | 1,562$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.71 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 20c | 1,226$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 44c | 1,224$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed No | 17c | 1,100$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes | 27c | 920$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.6 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3,440.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b31…754abacked Yes | 65c | 728.26$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 28c | 700$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.76 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…9a75backed No | 18c | 700$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 33c | 549.74$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.93 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 71c | 447.4$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89a…64efbacked Yes | 66c | 433.38$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 35c | 403.52$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.29 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb7…0ed4backed Yes | 70c | 357.74$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 70c | 357.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 70c | 352$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.56 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ff…f475backed Yes | 12c | 329.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2593…6d05backed Yes | 31c | 324.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 53c | 301.07$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.22 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked No | 15c | 292.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 31c | 249$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…b7cfbacked Yes | 42c | 236.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 223.96$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cb…b053backed Yes | 45c | 199.99$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 194.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeedd…76aabacked Yes | 13c | 149.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 52c | 147$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked No | 32c | 141.35$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…6264backed No | 65c | 129.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…aec3backed Yes | 13c | 120$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfc…207abacked No | 14c | 105.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 69c | 103.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0892…48d8backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…defdbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcccf…9c1abacked Yes | 50c | 59.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 55c | 57.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…33b3backed Yes | 45c | 57.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 28c | 51.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d92…e287backed No | 70c | 36.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…648cbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes | 76c | 22.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?this page
- Will H win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will KrF win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will MDG win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will R win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?Yes won
- Will SV win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will another party win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.