World Politics · resolved market
Will SV win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x662ef8fd8c9c9e17735a6205271fccda99713f51f6ddeb398ceeddb61bbacd46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x55de…69e6backed Yes | 3c | 4,467$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 25c | 2,810$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.81 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,664$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.86 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,966$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 15c | 1,126$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…9a75backed Yes | 25c | 891.03$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 29c | 817.15$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.07 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Yes | 9c | 800$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 762.34$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f6…730ebacked Yes | 32c | 401.41$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfc…207abacked Yes | 4c | 352$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 9c | 331.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2593…6d05backed Yes | 31c | 323.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…350cbacked Yes | 32c | 315.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78ff…f475backed Yes | 8c | 307.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 27c | 305$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 33c | 300$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 146 | 32.2%47 W · 99 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked Yes | 19c | 282.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 181$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddd…8e9bbacked Yes | 29c | 180$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee5…0836backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 30cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 75c | 140.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 22c | 120.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 113.54$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3db…1959backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ab…7e31backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…8fcabacked Yes | 25c | 97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773f…0b6dbacked Yes | 22c | 89.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 78.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 78c | 53.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 72c | 40.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?this page
- Will H win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will KrF win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will MDG win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will R win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?Yes won
- Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will another party win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.