World Politics · resolved market
Will R win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7a4c5832f03b5c50d61a12469bcdb410af1f5dfc1cee4467bbd46faa9d89b44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x649f…993ebacked No | 77c | 4,312$3,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,307.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 21c | 3,603$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,846.37 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 23c | 3,333$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.32 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23a…9a75backed Yes | 16c | 3,177$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,656.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 20cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 25c | 2,796$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.93 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 12c | 2,261$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.77 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…ae12backed No | 12c | 1,722$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 24c | 1,585$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.92 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…6264backed Yes | 19c | 1,344$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 24c | 1,008$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.21 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 14c | 998$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.72 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 15c | 938.06$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.37 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78ff…f475backed Yes | 21c | 915.5$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce5…7c13backed Yes | 31c | 905$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.25 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked No | 43c | 878.16$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 23c | 829.39$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.55 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc89a…64efbacked Yes | 73c | 821.74$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 60c | 821.23$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.49 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 11c | 753.24$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.24 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 18c | 600$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 400.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 76c | 394.7$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.97 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x477c…bbd3backed Yes | 26c | 333.81$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 16c | 265.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.34 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 77c | 250$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.5 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 64c | 218.65$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.95 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf221…8b16backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 199.08$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.43 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 194.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 26c | 189$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.56 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36d1…12b4backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.82 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed Yes | 20c | 126$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7a…35ecbacked Yes | 20c | 105.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 89.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3c…15f9backed Yes | 24c | 84.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +320.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfc…207abacked Yes | 50c | 70.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 18c | 67.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 20c | 64.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…f72ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd76…6c23backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will R win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?this page
- Will H win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will KrF win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will MDG win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will SV win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will V win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
- Will another party win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.