TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfb81…1cf3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
693
Categories scored
36
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: World Politics, grading 67 out of 100 (+0.16 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 67 out of 100; worst Space at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT11120.7%23 W · 88 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+212.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 111 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will Kristi Noem be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+1,539.3%+$439.15
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$127.69
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+2,464.1%+$559.26
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+455.6%+$430.26
Will Trump say "ICE" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Grocery" during Mamdani events on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$29.42
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$239.86
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$181Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$180.62
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$50.92
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+669.2%+$160.31
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+669.2%+$1,338.06
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$159.81
Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$79.99
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+614.3%+$307.02
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$79.94
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$139.88
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$47.87
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$636.32
Will Mike Bloomberg endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$162.29
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$87.21
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$496.08
Showing 25 of 111 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT7335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
World Politics — the 73 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.72
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + D66 + CDA?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+614.3%+$1,228.08
Will Volt be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+373.9%+$220.45
Will JA21 be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$39.87
Will Yoon be sentenced to prison in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+267.6%+$534.35
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+733.3%+$1,172.16
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$196Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$196.31
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$389Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$388.94
Will Franco Parisi endorse no candidate for President of Chile?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$148.17
Will Franco Parisi endorse José Antonio Kast for President of Chile?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+488.2%+$780.2
Will Franco Parisi endorse Jeanette Jara for President of Chile?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+614.3%+$206.35
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$44.63
Will José Antonio Kast win between 24% and 28% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$150.51
Will Jeannette Jara win between 28% and 32% of votes in the first round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20.87
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Cho Tae-yong in jail by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$159.9
Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 22 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will the GreenLeft–Labour Party alliance win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+426.3%+$297.17
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$199.66
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$199.92
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$199.93
Will Trump say "Tariff" 10+ times during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.94
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Korea CEOs Luncheon on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
North Korea missile launch by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will turnout be between 44% and 48% in the 2025 Irish Presidential Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Showing 25 of 73 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST6317.5%11 W · 52 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Weather — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on December 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$19.98
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 49-50°F on December 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$11.62
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or higher on December 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$19.98
Will the highest temperature in London be between 58-59°F on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+1,011.1%+$202.02
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+733.3%+$171.11
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on December 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+1,150%+$152.33
Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+669.2%+$133.11
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15.26
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$25.51
Will the highest temperature in London be between 40-41°F on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$12.04
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on November 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$19.94
2025 September second hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$101.68
Will the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$19.98
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+733.3%+$146.08
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+614.3%+$122.12
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.95
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.9
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST5330.2%16 W · 37 L+8.6wins+0.16per pick14cpaid+154.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Middle East — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces in Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+488.2%+$682.25
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+669.2%+$1,070.1
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$73.32
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$65.46
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+669.2%+$218.74
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$159.94
Will Israel strike 2 countries in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+1,900%+$1,136.49
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$159.9
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
US x Saudi security agreement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$159.88
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$159.8
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$21.26
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$159.84
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+733.3%+$1,172.16
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$159.85
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$107.71
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+334.8%+$668.36
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$202.62
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will Israel strike Lebanon on October 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.83
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.8
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST5012%6 W · 44 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick7cpaid+272.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
O/U 3.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$154.04
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)backed Weili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$80
O/U 0.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+1,900%+$1,520
Fight to Go the Distance?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$159.84
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Brady · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$159.84
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Michael Morales win by KO or TKO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$80
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$80
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Carlos Prates win by KO or TKO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$80
UFC 322: Edwards vs. Prates (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Edwards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Benoît Saint Denis win by KO or TKO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$26.66
UFC 322: Cortez vs. Blanchfield (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Cortez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$80
O/U 0.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$80
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$80
UFC 322: Mariscal vs. Sabatini (Featherweight, Early Prelims)backed Mariscal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will the fight be won by submission?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+9,900%+$7,920
O/U 2.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+2,400%+$500
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$79.98
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr.backed Rountree Jr. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.86
UFC Fight Night: Oki vs. Jonesbacked Jones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+2,400%+$1,680
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Delijabacked Tybura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.8
UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. Bryczekbacked Tavares · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.68
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST496.1%3 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-52.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 49 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Braze Inc (BRZE) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$19.89
Will Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Bath & Body Works (BBWI) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Lowe's Companies (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$19.98
Will Target (TGT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$19.98
Will Weibo (WB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$19.98
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$19.89
Will Femasys (FEMY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$79.98
Will Playboy (PLBY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Bain Capital Specialty Finance (BCSF) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$19.89
Will Getty Images Holdings (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will eToro Group (ETOR) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$19.89
Will Wendy’s (WEN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$11.14
Will USA Rare Earth (USAR) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will DraftKings (DKNG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$19.89
Will Monster Beverage (MNST) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+455.6%+$91.02
Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Celsius Holdings (CELH) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will McDonald’s (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Rivian Automotive (RIVN) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 49 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT4531.1%14 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.19per pick13cpaid+143.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
AI — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+741.1%+$1,195.66
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+1,566.7%+$2,506.04
Will Apple release HomePod mini successor by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$221.21
Will Grok have a MacOS desktop app live by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+1,900%+$783.17
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+733.3%+$109.56
Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+455.6%+$621.13
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+809.1%+$1,618.02
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$21.28
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$159.94
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$319.78
Will Sam Altman say "Robot" or "Robotic" on The Tonight Show on December 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$159.76
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$159.9
Will A Minecraft Movie be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$199.94
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$145.45
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$160.1
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$79.99
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$159.88
Will Tyler Robinson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$159.84
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$17.12
Will d4vd rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$159.94
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$159.84
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$54.44
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+525%+$661.92
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST3729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+134.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+614.3%+$858.28
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+376.2%+$526.14
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+400%+$211.38
NATO downs another Russian drone by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$17.42
Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$159.89
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$159.8
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$139.88
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$92.43
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$198.33
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+733.3%+$458.71
Will Russia enter Kostyantynivka by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.8
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.88
More EU sanctions on Russia by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.74
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.88
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+400%+$410.78
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.98
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.88
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$858.28
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.97
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.92
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$194.58
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or UAE?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.82
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$399.68
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST3023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+140.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$159.98
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$159.72
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$19.54
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$35.89
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$159.86
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$159.9
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$159.73
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$159.98
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.94
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.92
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.93
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 26 to October 3, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.72
Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+792.9%+$1,110
Will SBF tweet again by Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.72
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+350.5%+$490.14
Elon Musk tweets 25+ times Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$239.78
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$239.87
Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.8
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.8
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+1,566.7%+$1,566.04
Will Andrew Tate tweet less than 160 times Jan 24-31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+1,566.7%+$264.71
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+890.1%+$198.12
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+432.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.96
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.9
Will three people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$159.96
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+9,900%+$7,920
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 3+ times during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$39.97
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Powell say "Meeting" 9+ times during October press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$188.02
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during October press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.83
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will one person dissent the September Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.88
Will one person dissent the Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.48
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.48
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.97
Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.75
Will Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+614.3%+$229.61
Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.75
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.75
All 21 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST2114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olivia Dean win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+693.7%+$193.04
Will Drake's next album debut No.1 on Billboard 200?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+809.1%+$1,294.06
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+270.4%+$378.14
The Life of a Showgirl Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.86
Will “The Fate of Ophelia” have between 30–35 million views on Friday at noon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$35.82
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.84
Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.89
Will Vietnam win Intervision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.98
Will Taylor Swift release a new original song by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$131.02
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.9
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Denmark qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Belgium qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.84
Will Portugal qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$94.52
Will Iceland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.84
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$149.82
Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$74.99
Will "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" by Shaboozey win Best Country Song?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will "The Architect" by Kacey Musgraves win Best Country Song?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$75
All 21 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+99.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44.96
Harmonix FDV above $25M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$44.96
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$103.28
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$159.98
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+1,566.7%+$2,506.04
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$39.96
Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$159.86
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$279.62
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will Paxos win the USDH ticker?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+525%+$139.43
WLFI >$13B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.61
Will Pump.fun launch a token by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$902.18
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$158.17
Rainbow airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+525%+$170.85
Will another coin be the next coin listed on Robinhood?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.62
Will $PENGU be the next coin listed on Robinhood?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.62
All 17 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST1533.3%5 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+79.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mikie Sherrill win by 9-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$178.49
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$320
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 5–10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$320
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$319.9
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 15-18%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+354.8%+$253.09
Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+525%+$840
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+376.2%+$110.96
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+733.3%+$178.22
Will EJ Antoni be confirmed as BLS Commissioner in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.18
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.8
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 13% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.83
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.99
Lori Chavez-DeRemer confirmed as Labor Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+205.8%+$122.37
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$149.94
All 15 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Nov 22, 2025, EST156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$159.94
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$858.28
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.74
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.98
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will annual inflation increase by 2.8% in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.92
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.99
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will the June 2025 unemployment rate be 4.3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$239.88
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 0% and -1% in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.88
All 15 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1225%3 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+129.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Stocks — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netflix (NFLX) hit $110 before 2026??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $345 before 2026??backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60.91
Nancy Pelosi Index Up or Down: Week of December 1backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) close at >$48 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 24 – Nov 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+346.4%+$138.13
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $100 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+777.2%+$1,242.17
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $430 end of November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $170 end of November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+1,328.6%+$531.03
Will Apple reach $280 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175-$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $300-$305 on the final day of trading of the week of Nov 17 – Nov 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$79.99
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of November 17 above $300?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$79.98
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of November 17 above $180?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$40.64
All 12 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2025, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Freakier Friday" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $29m and $34m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT+443.5%+$400.66
Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19m and $22m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.8
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $17m and $20m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+562.3%+$448.27
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$159.96
Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will "Flow" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will "Conclave" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$79.98
Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will 'Den of Thieves 2: Pantera' opening weekend gross less than $16m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Angelina Jolie win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 12 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+455.6%+$636.32
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$159.96
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$159.88
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$159.8
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$79.98
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$319.86
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.8
Trump strikes another drug boat by Sep 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$185.75
All 9 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 21, 2025, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick14cpaid+520.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+185.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Space — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+1,166.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Golf — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+294.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Chess — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick8cpaid+517.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boxing – Salt Papi vs. Tony Fergusonbacked Salt Papi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
All 1 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another dildo thrown at WNBA game by August 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BLAST Bounty: Complexity vs. HEROICbacked Complexity · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Doug Polk’s win his “Every Starting Hand” Challenge?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Dortmund or Lille advance in the UCL Round of 16?backed Lille · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.