TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,533,509
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,175,458

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,533,509 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,878 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa0f…ab1cbacked Yes8c1,409,985$116,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116,492.2750%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee50…7ed6backed No56c1,097,133$613,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483,545.991788.2%15 W · 2 L+7.5wins+0.44per pick44cpaid+229.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x67f9…d241backed Yes0c519,361$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.3680%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa66c…f291backed Yes0c279,111$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.9550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a2d…e614backed Yes36c159,729$57,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,855.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-58.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46b…ee13backed Yes0c100,100$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.92520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3fe…4a24backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-59%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bbb…4568backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06e0…7934backed Yes32c84,992$27,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,481.771741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked Yes0c81,512$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0218…52c0backed Yes0c71,368$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120326.3%2 W · 30 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-81.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x368b…2458backed Yes38c62,145$23,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,716.74966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+56.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3de…89f2backed Yes39c54,200$21,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,13810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07b9…245ebacked Yes39c54,110$21,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,102.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes4c53,482$2,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2741338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No70c49,989$35,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,871.132763%17 W · 10 L+6.3wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+111.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x710d…33d3backed Yes50c49,937$24,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,968.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4747…0658backed Yes0c48,790$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6950%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf328…219cbacked Yes47c45,070$20,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,996.43333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+230%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfaab…e6f2backed Yes42c42,722$17,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,769.7128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick23cpaid-82.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x840a…ef52backed Yes52c40,533$20,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,919.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf677…60e7backed Yes54c40,384$21,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,661.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes37c39,714$14,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,613.5625731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c3d…0beebacked Yes52c38,956$20,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,256.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+244.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x596a…4207backed Yes53c38,791$20,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,453425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-67.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed No57c35,295$20,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,035.384540%18 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebaa…98a5backed Yes53c31,526$16,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,663.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3000…9d73backed Yes29c30,429$8,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,926.7640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No49c30,334$14,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,611.542733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0d3…dfcdbacked Yes0c30,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f5…b7e4backed Yes40c29,939$11,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,960.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b20…38ffbacked Yes0c29,859$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.16267.7%2 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes47c28,000$13,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,019.971513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-79.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes36c27,415$9,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,919.922615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-70.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c3…5b9abacked Yes53c25,875$13,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,656.42728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b0…bd69backed Yes36c24,949$8,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,955.841216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7bb7…44f2backed No65c24,282$15,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,520.842133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e70…0004backed Yes40c23,715$9,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,377.9270%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xad06…2dfabacked Yes49c23,552$11,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,597.86837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-43.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb6…3f9ebacked Yes42c22,987$9,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,549.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ea…15cdbacked No54c21,772$11,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,000.61291.7%11 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.30per pick62cpaid+46.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed No57c21,712$12,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,234.455843.1%25 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a13…4593backed Yes39c20,583$8,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,092.951566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7fd…89debacked Yes40c20,161$8,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,006.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes46c20,035$9,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,216.931520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-42.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9db7…7e1fbacked No68c18,485$12,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,964.81728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf129…065bbacked Yes0c17,566$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes18c16,850$2,968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,968.29119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-88.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66d4…ae10backed Yes32c16,500$5,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,285.411735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes0c16,100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6318311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa24f…f655backed Yes31c16,032$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c2…2ab0backed Yes36c15,721$5,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,64420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff72…cdaabacked No62c15,619$9,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,985.61631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cfb…bababacked Yes32c15,500$4,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,927.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2162…f0b1backed Yes13c15,013$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes42c14,897$6,251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,251.171010%1 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-83.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3749…7ad0backed Yes52c14,116$7,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,395.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb614…a713backed Yes32c14,105$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d0…70c2backed Yes0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5c…27b4backed Yes42c13,827$5,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,746.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b18…42ecbacked Yes2c13,815$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61cd…10c9backed Yes36c13,747$4,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,986.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No60c13,400$8,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,398.878923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No47c13,055$6,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,863.67222.2%16 W · 56 L-0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x303c…4487backed Yes3c12,522$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.8911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-85.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3825…9450backed Yes40c12,220$4,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,88810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1de…ffd8backed Yes60c12,104$7,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,295.34911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-74.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes50c12,101$6,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,110.791241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a79…6296backed Yes40c12,047$4,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,872.820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x41ab…6473backed Yes50c12,000$6,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,059.981650%8 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1480…3fd4backed Yes51c11,920$6,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,062.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Yes38c11,754$4,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,439.381643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c5…0299backed Yes6c11,613$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.5870%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ec…27aebacked Yes39c11,581$4,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,527.942020%4 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid+17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc324…4cd6backed Yes30c11,500$3,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,394.011154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+41.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a5e…0653backed Yes37c11,100$4,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,10710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x63af…3438backed Yes40c11,011$4,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,36010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be9…7b6fbacked Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked Yes1c10,998$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.982828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4113…9514backed Yes36c10,850$3,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed No59c10,825$6,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,464.5911850%59 W · 59 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d33…c15fbacked Yes13c10,747$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,406.311020%2 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes33c10,741$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50070%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes1c10,300$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb84d…8b3abacked Yes1c10,095$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe504…70efbacked No57c10,059$5,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,283.961816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-76.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10150%0 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c49…7af9backed Yes39c10,000$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,900250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1304…8bf1backed Yes41c10,000$4,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,074.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f45…d06cbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b48…050cbacked Yes55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked Yes50c9,971$4,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,945.791330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+181.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Yes35c9,762$3,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.722360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7357…22c6backed Yes27c9,759$2,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,63530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3674…a1f7backed Yes45c9,697$4,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,379.77520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-74.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe1d…3c6ebacked Yes52c9,379$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f85…8693backed Yes0c9,268$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.271030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-55.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked No59c9,205$5,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,794.626100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+111.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b44…ccfabacked Yes32c9,191$2,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,936.43120%0 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes39c9,114$3,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,551.11338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-43.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.