TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x057a…72be

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
185
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 57 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST5125.5%13 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Rocketsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$23.9
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Timberwolves vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Celtics vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Pistons vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+284.6%+$284.62
Kings vs. Rocketsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Thunder vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$96
Timberwolves vs. Kingsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$20
76ers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Knicks vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$134.6
Nuggets vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Kings vs. Thunderbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Warriors vs. Heatbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$199.2
Jazz vs. Lakersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Pistons vs. Hawksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Celtics vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$166
Warriors vs. Magicbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$106.9
Bulls vs. Nuggetsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+669.2%+$669.23
Thunder vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Magic vs. Rocketsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Warriors vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+138.1%+$276.19
Thunder vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Warriors vs. Spursbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+163.2%+$326.32
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST2556%14 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$100
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+66.7%+$66.67
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$100
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$72
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+72.4%+$72.41
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+51.5%+$154.55
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+61.3%+$122.58
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+53.4%+$160.09
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$352.17
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$310.5
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$306
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+106%+$190.78
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+105.5%+$63.27
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 3 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+75.9%+$151.85
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winnerbacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 1 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$31.43
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$31.03
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3)backed Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest (BO3)backed CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winnerbacked CTBC Flying Oyster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$37.72
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
LoL: 100 Thieves vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked 100 Thieves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 25 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+204.2%+$289.1
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$514Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$514
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$253Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+50%+$126.56
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,700Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+32.5%+$552.96
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+75.4%+$150.88
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+37%+$110.96
US strike on Syria by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25.1%+$502.21
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$1,058Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,058.5
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$65.1
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$171.98
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+53.1%+$106.23
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+43.6%+$87.2
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+100%+$61.27
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$800
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+168.7%+$422.58
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+53.6%+$214.4
All 19 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$518Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$518.42
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+55.6%+$111.12
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Trump's approval rating hit 40% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,090Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,090.28
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49.3%+$66
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$358Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$357.59
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$103.53
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$3,131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$3,130.79
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$492Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$491.82
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+517.3%+$1,034.57
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+91.8%+$183.68
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$780Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+75.4%+$587.68
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$550
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$340
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 18 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$168.67
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$184.39
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$3,917Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$3,916.7
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,536Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$1,536.19
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+919.8%+$1,839.57
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$407.95
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$250
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,300Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+35.2%+$810.21
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,100
Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$700Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$700
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Meteora FDV above $750M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-75.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Grok 4.20 not be released by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+31.4%+$31.36
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+89%+$16.48
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$190.59
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST-100%-$220
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$80.09
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$250
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$800
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 30 2025 or later?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$900
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$1,300
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$141.61
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,069Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+336.4%+$3,597.69
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$719Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$718.63
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,783Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+63%+$1,123.35
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+50.1%+$43.32
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,314Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+104.2%+$1,369.21
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20.25
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 101m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?backed Avatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$980Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$979.85
All 9 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+92.3%+$92.31
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$78.57
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+75%+$13.54
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Dodgers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 5 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+116.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$567Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+116.1%+$658.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 28-November 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$375Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$375.37
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.