TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Warriors

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,419,534
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,477,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,419,534 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 522 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2f09…4632backed Warriors16c223,108$36,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,717.3120253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors18c191,684$35,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,455.2187144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Warriors18c142,436$25,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,638.4315443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Warriors16c134,782$20,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,990.368333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90ab…ded1backed Warriors16c134,144$20,876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,876.217745.5%35 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…1795backed Warriors17c101,729$17,694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,6943839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Warriors19c100,000$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,599.9851350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…bc51backed Warriors14c69,060$9,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,95921944.7%98 W · 121 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Warriors17c46,007$7,690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,690.2847028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Warriors11c38,929$4,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,419.661,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Warriors20c33,275$6,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,636.8137557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd538…cc31backed Warriors17c31,100$5,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,35721450%107 W · 107 L-14.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-12.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27cb…169ebacked Warriors16c30,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,799.9927424.5%67 W · 207 L-10.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Warriors8c29,828$2,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.2227917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Warriors4c28,701$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.9818518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Warriors21c27,685$5,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,730.3726038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Warriors19c25,135$4,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,724.261,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors17c24,908$4,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,225.714,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8049…8f36backed Warriors17c22,513$3,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,927.241323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe756…e006backed Warriors17c14,572$2,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,53132827.4%90 W · 238 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3088…ec44backed Warriors12c12,900$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.593043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Warriors17c11,781$2,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.7513248.5%64 W · 68 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Warriors0c10,869$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3464517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…53a2backed Warriors0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Warriors11c9,760$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,085.4986641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb84…08a9backed Warriors28c9,121$2,527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5275139.2%20 W · 31 L-9.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-34.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Warriors1c8,872$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.057211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Warriors9c8,500$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72547535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Warriors17c7,100$1,176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,176.481,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Warriors21c7,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4708846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb322…2179backed Warriors19c6,595$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2534040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99c1…9b20backed Warriors15c6,572$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$963.3430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Warriors3c6,445$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.3834227.2%93 W · 249 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Warriors10c6,332$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.851,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a61…b560backed Warriors21c6,136$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.189640.6%39 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fb7…082dbacked Warriors16c5,609$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89113250%66 W · 66 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Warriors1c5,096$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.754573.5%16 W · 441 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dcd…d125backed Warriors18c5,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb8…43f6backed Warriors13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6507236.1%26 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Warriors16c4,914$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80017441.4%72 W · 102 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors9c4,872$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.364,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ee7…0ba8backed Warriors18c4,822$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8606544.6%29 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Warriors13c4,777$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.1789444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder78c4,729$3,693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.092,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Thunder80c4,666$3,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.149868.4%67 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Warriors12c4,521$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.181,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Warriors18c4,258$760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.4850838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7e0…f075backed Warriors10c4,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab0c…e26bbacked Warriors17c4,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1987…cf6bbacked Warriors17c3,940$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Thunder79c3,900$3,081 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81914639.7%58 W · 88 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bd5…8971backed Warriors15c3,868$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.551145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7de0…7c66backed Warriors8c3,611$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040536.5%148 W · 257 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ecf…0ebbbacked Warriors20c3,575$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Warriors16c3,500$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5651,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Warriors21c3,253$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.211,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccea…a8ebbacked Warriors17c3,128$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.9523348.1%112 W · 121 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Warriors19c3,041$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.7112541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Warriors38c3,015$1,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,145.8548046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Warriors17c3,000$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Warriors1c2,800$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa72e…3db9backed Warriors18c2,688$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.1614243%61 W · 81 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-0.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4403…4252backed Warriors19c2,650$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.454163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17ec…0e6abacked Warriors16c2,630$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.8425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Warriors17c2,598$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.729851%50 W · 48 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Warriors21c2,546$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52885742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca8…ddddbacked Warriors16c2,522$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40027846.8%130 W · 148 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Thunder60c2,500$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Warriors9c2,418$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2142165.6%12 W · 204 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb19…16ccbacked Warriors2c2,375$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…f118backed Warriors19c2,368$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x002f…6a4ebacked Warriors19c2,360$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.450%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Warriors14c2,322$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.851,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfb…deb3backed Warriors15c2,317$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.61338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc65…49d8backed Warriors8c2,249$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.063633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Warriors5c2,222$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.110235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Warriors17c2,216$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.7244648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Warriors17c2,129$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.721,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Warriors18c2,027$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.8636247.2%171 W · 191 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Warriors1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Warriors18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36046632.6%152 W · 314 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c2…39edbacked Warriors18c2,000$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010635.8%38 W · 68 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Warriors17c2,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9943247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Warriors6c1,976$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.491,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06eb…1a5fbacked Thunder61c1,959$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.910167.3%68 W · 33 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f2c…dcbbbacked Warriors13c1,808$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.55520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9209…1379backed Warriors7c1,805$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a07…6764backed Warriors17c1,777$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae1d…45ccbacked Warriors18c1,770$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.6560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+50.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca95…8ad3backed Warriors12c1,757$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.9862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+42%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Warriors17c1,739$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.7875347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…adcabacked Warriors6c1,692$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.19540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Warriors17c1,668$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.9260834.4%209 W · 399 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec2…f07dbacked Warriors18c1,622$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2921040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-9.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf3d0…673fbacked Warriors18c1,500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Warriors8c1,484$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.6448739.8%194 W · 293 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Warriors17c1,470$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.950%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4651…d756backed Warriors16c1,467$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.11050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85f1…20eebacked Warriors11c1,407$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15ff…62ccbacked Warriors18c1,389$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.