TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Thunder, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,988
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,970

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,988 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Warriors57c59,102$33,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,448.2315443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Thunder43c50,741$21,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,836.3918151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder44c19,080$8,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,305.21,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Warriors56c13,413$7,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,890.9237557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Warriors56c5,318$2,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,339.9187144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Thunder44c2,500$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10085147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Thunder45c2,224$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.69652.1%50 W · 46 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Thunder43c1,650$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.558951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder44c1,650$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72647751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder50c1,583$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$793.828,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Warriors52c1,485$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.858347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors56c1,345$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.86,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Warriors57c1,065$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.8915461.7%95 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors46c1,015$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.665,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Warriors53c999.97$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.9851753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Thunder44c825$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36327840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0341…a679backed Thunder43c813.95$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35013041.5%54 W · 76 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3214…63d6backed Warriors58c715.52$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.528331.3%26 W · 57 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Warriors51c604.16$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.0433150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb6…15cdbacked Warriors50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Warriors53c499.99$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23573649.9%367 W · 369 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder48c499.93$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.089,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder47c488.58$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.352,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Warriors56c470.29$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.932,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Thunder49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20047048.5%228 W · 242 L-18.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Thunder46c378.75$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2211741.9%49 W · 68 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dcf…146ebacked Thunder44c375$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16518140.3%73 W · 108 L-9.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e08…3d14backed Warriors54c370.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.52759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Thunder50c316$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15852460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Thunder46c296.67$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.443,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7fe…d4f9backed Warriors56c285.71$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.71560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb080…5eddbacked Thunder47c250$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.58540%34 W · 51 L-7.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors50c232.66$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.664,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Thunder42c223.83$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0127051.5%139 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Thunder26c207.46$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.753,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Warriors41c201$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.0644654.3%242 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa7ce…14b4backed Warriors24c200$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15212157%69 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Warriors46c200$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10928929.4%85 W · 204 L-13.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3088…ec44backed Thunder46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Warriors55c182.39$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.3919951.8%103 W · 96 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x040f…e98cbacked Warriors57c173.68$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.683647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46df…b057backed Warriors58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4121164.5%136 W · 75 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdfc4…118ebacked Thunder48c166.67$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Thunder44c165$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.618053.3%96 W · 84 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993e…8ee9backed Thunder44c152.27$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860d…3c72backed Thunder45c150$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.526651.1%136 W · 130 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x441d…4d70backed Thunder44c140$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.61127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Thunder48c129.22$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.82,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf2…06c2backed Warriors57c125$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8515051.3%77 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a82…b6bdbacked Thunder43c118.6$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518251.2%42 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x211b…78aebacked Thunder47c118$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.46650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc757…f18cbacked Warriors57c105.26$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.268661.6%53 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec5…9fe0backed Warriors54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4616853%89 W · 79 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Warriors58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4237850.3%190 W · 188 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d48…b9a1backed Thunder49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4919254.7%105 W · 87 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Thunder65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6548347.2%228 W · 255 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04e5…b8ffbacked Thunder45c99.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453956.4%22 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Warriors54c96$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.371,10941.8%464 W · 645 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e8e…1ef0backed Warriors77c92.47$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.479954.5%54 W · 45 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Warriors53c91.22$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.712,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed Warriors54c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.46058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Warriors56c80.56$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.5624452.5%128 W · 116 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Thunder50c74$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46a0…f721backed Thunder47c70.66$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.213842.1%16 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51dd…2f92backed Warriors57c69.57$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5719944.7%89 W · 110 L-15.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Thunder52c65.22$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1512156.2%68 W · 53 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Thunder46c54.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2593036.5%339 W · 591 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be5…2a5fbacked Thunder47c52.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.863756.8%21 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aba…0831backed Warriors53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.518558.4%108 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Thunder47c43.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6352643%226 W · 300 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x29f6…d6b6backed Thunder47c42.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Thunder33c42.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.973,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19a7…3ec1backed Warriors57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.29348.4%45 W · 48 L-5.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Warriors54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.414549%71 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc60c…3bf9backed Warriors56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711877.8%14 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder44c35.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.713,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f8…667fbacked Thunder46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.82254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49ec…c4e5backed Warriors54c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.52860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x89fe…4293backed Thunder46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121450%7 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4669…785ebacked Warriors54c21$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.664757.4%27 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fbb…2349backed Warriors50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+70.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dde…5e0dbacked Thunder50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31ed…09dabacked Warriors54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.28151.9%42 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ca0…a4fcbacked Warriors54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.25151%26 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x227c…f0cbbacked Warriors54c19.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.83842.1%16 W · 22 L-4.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.