NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2106ce67ca891f70e586a0a42e5feb3da03e4c25f0070c0414f9f6d79d3a418
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 27,857$13,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,879.24 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Over | 50c | 25,863$13,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,843.93 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 50c | 24,700$12,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,407 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f1…bebdbacked Over | 50c | 5,848$2,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,924 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 50c | 4,788$2,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,398 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…94b4backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 3,514$1,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,791.93 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…c55ebacked Over | 49c | 2,838$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,447.35 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 49c | 2,430$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.54 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Under | 52c | 2,103$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -14.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0fc6backed Under | 53c | 1,887$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 34c | 1,812$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.37 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…08a9backed Under | 65c | 1,459$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.84 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -9.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 52c | 1,038$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.5 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 44c | 1,035$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.55 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 1,000$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Over | 48c | 994$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.88 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Under | 52c | 994$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.88 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Over | 50c | 951.2$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.98 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Over | 50c | 753.92$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.96 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 49c | 700$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357 | 156 | 53.8%84 W · 72 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 47c | 625.81$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.68 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 49c | 612$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.12 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed Over | 45c | 465$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.75 | 208 | 56.7%118 W · 90 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 411.45$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.81 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 49c | 409.22$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.7 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 65c | 399.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 910 | 50.9%463 W · 447 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 391.99$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.68 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Under | 35c | 375.28$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.35 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Over | 51c | 269.08$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.08 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 49c | 205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 43c | 203.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 164$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.2 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…a679backed Over | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Under | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -10.8wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cc…6bb9backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b4…e861backed Over | 50c | 134$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 134$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.68 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…e269backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 247 | 31.2%77 W · 170 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…78eebacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…1ad3backed Under | 51c | 99.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa025…bd01backed Over | 51c | 85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 50c | 84.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.22 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Under | 67c | 73.13$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce6f…778fbacked Under | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa848…68fcbacked Under | 66c | 60.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0c…b90abacked Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 174 | 44.3%77 W · 97 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…59fabacked Over | 51c | 55.41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…6bc0backed Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -51%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…db8fbacked Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Over | 49c | 38.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…dbf6backed Under | 46c | 32.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…3bb5backed Under | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Over | 50c | 30.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 183 | 57.4%105 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Under | 71c | 15.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Warriors won
- Thunder vs. WarriorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.