NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 113.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6eb2b8c038162286b55bc1b3e5da45f3910654bf0e7172246889474636611c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Over | 53c | 2,079$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 1,175$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.67 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Under | 47c | 884$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.52 | 446 | 54.3%242 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 59c | 883.99$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.44 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 79c | 528.03$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 362.77$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.14 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 47c | 290.35$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…cbeabacked Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…cddfbacked Under | 50c | 186$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…dd6cbacked Over | 50c | 186$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ed…96c8backed Under | 50c | 175$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 50c | 66.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e6…224cbacked Over | 50c | 59.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…748cbacked Over | 44c | 34.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 113.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-7.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Warriors won
- Thunder vs. WarriorsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 221.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 222.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.