TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Warriors
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$774,565
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$786,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $774,565 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Warriors53c208,805$109,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109,766.6315443.5%67 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Warriors53c161,087$84,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,677.2251350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Warriors51c100,000$50,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,5058333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Thunder47c79,580$37,403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,177.418151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Thunder46c63,000$28,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,020.0759653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder49c60,676$29,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,171.6269852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Thunder50c50,000$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,00017354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Thunder47c43,291$20,357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,934.091,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Thunder49c43,071$21,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,966.011,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Warriors51c34,217$17,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,53537557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Warriors50c31,332$15,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,666.911,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Thunder50c30,617$15,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,308.6829351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder40c24,811$9,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,868.532,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Thunder50c21,256$10,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,525.232,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Warriors50c19,678$9,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,838.9747848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb525…bdc7backed Warriors52c16,767$8,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,645.217447.3%35 W · 39 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Thunder49c15,555$7,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,933.0515952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Warriors50c15,000$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5001,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71a…9498backed Warriors48c13,210$6,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,359.2514549%71 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder50c12,908$6,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,427.499,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Warriors1c12,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12029810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors51c11,500$5,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8301,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Thunder47c11,225$5,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,949.0940350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Warriors54c11,031$5,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9657758.4%45 W · 32 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors47c9,779$4,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,590.994,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x607b…2592backed Thunder53c9,763$5,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,584.083100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Thunder47c9,650$4,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,114.51,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x462d…ce9bbacked Thunder48c9,424$4,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,900.77353.4%39 W · 34 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x564f…1795backed Warriors49c7,200$3,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,556.23839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed Thunder48c6,524$3,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,392.481963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+21.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Thunder50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0007437.8%28 W · 46 L-9.6wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Warriors51c5,740$2,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,927.410451%53 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc046…cf3abacked Thunder50c5,576$2,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,788.181040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked Warriors51c4,605$2,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,346.916140.4%65 W · 96 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9376…c075backed Thunder47c4,255$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.3214156%79 W · 62 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9ad…9577backed Warriors69c4,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.982343.5%10 W · 13 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick64cpaid-36.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Thunder50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50022053.6%118 W · 102 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6395…d69dbacked Thunder48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5602441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cbb…acb2backed Warriors48c2,972$1,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.4989050.4%449 W · 441 L+4.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Warriors47c2,647$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.862,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Thunder49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,27520253.5%108 W · 94 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Thunder49c2,499$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.5385147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x710a…ed6cbacked Thunder49c2,400$1,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2242254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3e8…29f1backed Warriors51c2,400$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2241526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-45.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder50c2,400$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.242,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Warriors46c2,228$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.538,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a61…6275backed Thunder51c2,157$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.86887.5%7 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick50cpaid+73.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d5c…0182backed Thunder46c1,933$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.4447751.8%247 W · 230 L+1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8287…059ebacked Warriors54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.993735.1%13 W · 24 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Warriors50c1,700$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed Warriors60c1,668$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick64cpaid-30.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Thunder40c1,652$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.1644337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Warriors48c1,608$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.8458347%274 W · 309 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Thunder29c1,460$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.658951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6911…947cbacked Thunder31c1,452$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,001.613727%10 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Thunder51c1,406$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$689.0795049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4403…4252backed Warriors54c1,389$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7504163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x15ff…62ccbacked Warriors51c1,371$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.26442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Thunder51c1,307$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.183,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Warriors47c1,296$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.121,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Warriors54c1,287$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69516136%58 W · 103 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder47c1,261$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.336,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Warriors52c1,124$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.198744.8%39 W · 48 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Warriors50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018547%87 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xda16…ac2bbacked Warriors53c999.99$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.9911939.5%47 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3482…98e3backed Warriors51c976.35$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5005832.8%19 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5c…8ae8backed Thunder50c960$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4802948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed Warriors35c857.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Warriors52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41656348.5%273 W · 290 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf09f…8049backed Thunder34c750$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.566645.9%306 W · 360 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa39a…6953backed Warriors72c700$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.04728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick58cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Thunder4c698.07$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.3913435.8%48 W · 86 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd781…92a0backed Warriors71c691.55$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4914436.4%16 W · 28 L-7.6wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-35.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1a10…8b30backed Thunder47c684.79$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.9450239%196 W · 306 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Thunder49c612.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.2427939.8%111 W · 168 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ce…6f34backed Warriors49c610.68$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013748.9%67 W · 70 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63e2…bb9bbacked Thunder49c600$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3062560%15 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x48a9…cd76backed Warriors51c600$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3063265.6%21 W · 11 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+30.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Thunder48c600$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3128547.1%40 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd954…4185backed Warriors49c570$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.31540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46bd…37e8backed Warriors49c530.61$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26016837.5%63 W · 105 L-20.6wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-25%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Warriors47c499.18$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.32,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Warriors50c484.95$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.552,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x825a…9f6fbacked Thunder52c480$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.41850%9 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0da5…5adfbacked Thunder53c471.7$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.712550.4%63 W · 62 L-7.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x441d…4d70backed Thunder49c426.87$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.241127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-33.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Thunder47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5335749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Thunder47c420$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.6955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Thunder31c416$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.092,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder49c410.37$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.092,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb428…13bfbacked Thunder47c406.38$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.385541.8%23 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x69c2…40cfbacked Thunder47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21248132.6%157 W · 324 L-2.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6878…bec2backed Thunder50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2007940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-2.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96ec…fcc4backed Warriors48c400$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.2527247.8%130 W · 142 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…9a70backed Warriors51c399.99$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x117c…db06backed Thunder51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1618047.2%85 W · 95 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Thunder54c372.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.697150.7%36 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc352…2ccbbacked Warriors54c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1181…8ce4backed Warriors54c359.83$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.317035.7%25 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Thunder47c350.56$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.772,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.