TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4335…fc2f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
417
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NFL, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 65 out of 100; worst UFC at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST17354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 173 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$23,508Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$23,507.52
Hornets vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$6,074Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+33.3%+$2,024.51
Spread: Rockets (-11.5)backed Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$17,150Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+104.1%+$17,849.99
Spread: Magic (-7.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,399Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$2,399.19
Magic vs. Jazzbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$58,400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+37%+$21,599.98
Celtics vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$35,665Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$35,665.02
Heat vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$58,027Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+37%+$21,461.91
Spread: Spurs (-15.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$19,600
Spread: Spurs (-16.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$15,900
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$6,516Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$6,516.05
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16,834Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+85.3%+$14,354.83
Spread: Hawks (-5.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25,555Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST-100%-$25,555.3
Spread: Knicks (-2.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$9,479Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+96.1%+$9,107.35
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$46,760Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+78.6%+$36,740
Rockets vs. Nuggetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$35,275Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$35,274.96
Raptors vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$31,499.97
Spread: Celtics (-1.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$4,052Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$4,052.1
Pistons vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$49,011Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$49,010.84
Spread: Grizzlies (-7.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$23,111Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+92.3%+$21,333.12
Jazz vs. Grizzliesbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+233.3%+$28,000
Bulls vs. Hornetsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$34,200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+75.4%+$25,799.99
Spread: Bulls (-2.5)backed Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,550Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+96.1%+$2,450
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$31,555Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+40.8%+$12,888.76
Spread: Pistons (-6.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$22,666Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+96.1%+$21,777.56
Spread: Thunder (-15.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$27,222Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$27,221.7
Showing 25 of 173 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST12055%66 W · 54 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 120 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Ole Miss (-17.5)backed Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20,444Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+117.4%+$23,999.76
Spread: Texas A&M (-3.5)backed Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$63,777Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+75.5%+$48,126.22
Miami vs. Texas A&Mbacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$55,444Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+130.5%+$72,332.87
O/U 40.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$14,100
Spread: Missouri State (-1.5)backed Missouri State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,707Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$2,707.39
Spread: Louisiana-Lafayette (-2.5)backed Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+85.2%+$289.8
Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hensbacked Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$35,878Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+107.5%+$38,566.44
Spread: South Florida (-3.5)backed Old Dominion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$60,507Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+101.1%+$61,162.35
Old Dominion vs. South Floridabacked Old Dominion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,133Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+170.3%+$3,632.36
Spread: Washington (-9.5)backed Washington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$22,222Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+100%+$22,222
Boise State vs. Washingtonbacked Washington · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$60,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+33.3%+$20,000
Army vs. Navybacked Navy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$38,888Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+42.9%+$16,666.5
Spread: Virginia (-3.5)backed Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+100%+$15,000
Duke vs. Virginiabacked Duke · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15,600Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+156.4%+$24,399.37
Ohio State vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+163.2%+$61,999.98
Spread: Georgia (-2.5)backed Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18,800Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+112.8%+$21,199.99
Georgia vs. Alabamabacked Georgia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31,200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+92.3%+$28,799.98
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-12.5)backed Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17,865Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+100%+$17,864.73
Spread: Western Michigan (-2.5)backed Western Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$39,967Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+100%+$39,966.66
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michiganbacked Western Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+81.8%+$26,999.97
North Texas vs. Tulanebacked North Texas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$25,999.99
Spread: Notre Dame (-32.5)backed Stanford · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$8,195Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+96.1%+$7,873.32
Spread: Alabama (-5.5)backed Auburn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$218Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$218.43
Alabama vs. Auburnbacked Auburn · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$11,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$11,600
Northwestern vs. Illinoisbacked Illinois · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21,300Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+40.8%+$8,700
Showing 25 of 120 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST11168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
NFL — the 111 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: 49ers (-5.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20,889Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+112.8%+$23,555.32
49ers vs. Coltsbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+51.5%+$17,000
Spread: 49ers (-4.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11,496Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+108.3%+$12,454.11
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$88,442Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$88,441.96
Jets vs. Saintsbacked Saints · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100,800Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+38.9%+$39,199.98
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)backed Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+81.8%+$18,000
Chiefs vs. Titansbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16,400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+143.9%+$23,599.99
Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)backed Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$873Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$872.5
Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)backed Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15,900
Spread: Cowboys (-1.5)backed Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$14,699.93
Spread: Bills (-10.5)backed Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10,423Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+99.5%+$10,366.88
Bengals vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$37,579Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+92.3%+$34,688.4
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$85,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$85,799.97
Eagles vs. Commandersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$26,666Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+66.7%+$17,777.6
Spread: Seahawks (-1.5)backed Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$754Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+104.1%+$785
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$32,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$32,100
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)backed Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21,600Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+108.3%+$23,400
Vikings vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$51,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$51,199.98
Colts vs. Seahawks: O/U 42.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$6,890Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+88.7%+$6,110
Spread: Giants (-2.5)backed Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$21,333Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+108.3%+$23,110.88
Commanders vs. Giantsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18,666Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+138.1%+$25,777.52
Spread: Texans (-9.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$12,676Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+88.7%+$11,241.42
Spread: Bears (-7.5)backed Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30,090Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$30,089.98
Spread: Ravens (-2.5)backed Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$21,657Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+81.8%+$17,719.65
Spread: Chiefs (-5.5)backed Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$16,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+108.3%+$17,333.16
Showing 25 of 111 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Dec 13, 2025, EST825%2 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-60.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
UFC — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Asplund vs. Sharaf (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Asplund · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$6,842Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+49.3%+$3,369.96
UFC Fight Night: Croden vs. Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Croden · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12,899Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$12,899.38
UFC Fight Night: Horth vs. Bleda (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Bleda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$39,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$39,600
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Della Maddalena · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$35,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$35,099.98
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)backed Weili · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$4,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$4,399.55
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Brady · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,641Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$4,640.99
UFC 322: Dariush vs. Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Dariush · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$14,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$14,400
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Rodrigues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$437Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+63.9%+$279.49
All 8 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17,910Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+78.6%+$14,072.29
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,284Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EDT+125.6%+$1,611.98
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
All 3 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20,399.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Sebastian Kordabacked Korda · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,000
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.