NFL · resolved market
Spread: 49ers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc3a78b734ec27bb014e8a1cd4364f79867e158543e44772ddec4612f58f3914
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,267
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked 49ers | 48c | 23,950$11,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,454.11 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3b…c46bbacked Colts | 52c | 20,866$10,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,761.76 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Colts | 52c | 8,500$4,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,420 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked 49ers | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…394ebacked Colts | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed 49ers | 49c | 4,500$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,295 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Colts | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Colts | 52c | 2,880$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.6 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colts | 50c | 2,370$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.65 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed 49ers | 50c | 2,330$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,165 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked 49ers | 49c | 2,050$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.49 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe796…7f5ebacked 49ers | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e02…b1c5backed 49ers | 49c | 1,300$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefc9…b337backed Colts | 51c | 1,259$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.01 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Colts | 51c | 1,199$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.24 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6b…3ba7backed 49ers | 49c | 1,028$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.02 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcea6…67adbacked 49ers | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Colts | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Colts | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed 49ers | 66c | 993.71$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.42 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…0b5fbacked Colts | 51c | 978.39$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.98 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed 49ers | 49c | 900$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Colts | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed 49ers | 65c | 750.14$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.19 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed 49ers | 49c | 717.99$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.18 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed 49ers | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed 49ers | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed 49ers | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed 49ers | 49c | 600$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…3b03backed Colts | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed Colts | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed 49ers | 48c | 499.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Colts | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77ff…4ddebacked 49ers | 49c | 439.88$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.34 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed 49ers | 50c | 400.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.19 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…56aebacked 49ers | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…d909backed 49ers | 49c | 354.06$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +115.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Colts | 51c | 343.62$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a45…1405backed 49ers | 49c | 343.33$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.1 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x493c…f027backed 49ers | 59c | 341.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.07 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed 49ers | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed 49ers | 53c | 300$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed 49ers | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…14f0backed Colts | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…22c1backed 49ers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Colts | 39c | 180$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Colts | 52c | 156.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Colts | 50c | 133.68$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Colts | 52c | 126.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…799cbacked 49ers | 50c | 123$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…df76backed 49ers | 49c | 121.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.2 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff9…ce7abacked 49ers | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…14bbbacked 49ers | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298c…3e58backed Colts | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed 49ers | 65c | 108$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed 49ers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…c123backed Colts | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked 49ers | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Colts | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 96 | 54.2%52 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed 49ers | 49c | 95$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Colts | 51c | 64.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Colts | 51c | 60.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Colts | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Colts | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked 49ers | 60c | 43.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed 49ers | 64c | 40.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed 49ers | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Colts | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed 49ers | 54c | 38.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e2…2ed0backed 49ers | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Colts | 44c | 35.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228f…40ecbacked 49ers | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked 49ers | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c2…e8a3backed 49ers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f1…876bbacked 49ers | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-3.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Colts49ers won
- 49ers vs. Colts: 1H Moneyline49ers won
- 49ers vs. Colts: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-5.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-6.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.