NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: 49ers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11d0ec8ea7fde713ba1321dc4b762bcf180bece78d8c7f80de22f13ab671b9bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 49ersof 49ers, Colts
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,208
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,210
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,208 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked 49ers | 44c | 1,090$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.5 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Colts | 55c | 700$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…55f7backed Colts | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed 49ers | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Colts | 56c | 285.71$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Colts | 53c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Colts | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked 49ers | 46c | 96.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Colts | 53c | 89$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Colts | 53c | 74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Colts | 54c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Colts | 54c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Colts | 54c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Colts | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaac…1045backed 49ers | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc64…6632backed Colts | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed 49ers | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed 49ers | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…7fd0backed 49ers | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…668abacked 49ers | 46c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…de52backed 49ers | 47c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…a94bbacked Colts | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…e450backed 49ers | 47c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Colts | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Colts | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…7defbacked Colts | 56c | 22.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: 49ers (-2.5)49ers won
- 49ers vs. Colts49ers won
- 49ers vs. Colts: 1H Moneyline49ers won
- 49ers vs. Colts: 1H O/U 23.5Over won
- 49ers vs. Colts: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: 49ers (-4.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-5.5)49ers won
- Spread: 49ers (-6.5)49ers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.