TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

49ers vs. Colts

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
49ersof 49ers, Colts
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,796,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,992,530

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,796,994 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 974 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Colts32c426,938$136,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136,919.2517041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0bc…af98backed 49ers68c310,000$210,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,200944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick67cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Colts27c306,007$82,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,573.538747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Colts33c233,903$77,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77,618.9211145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ff2…dbbdbacked 49ers67c135,476$90,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,707.023767.6%25 W · 12 L+5.7wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+32.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Colts26c108,989$27,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,795.0586547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98f7…b3e4backed 49ers66c106,073$70,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,559.532030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed 49ers79c99,123$78,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,445.5316955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Colts34c96,288$32,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,737.934250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed 49ers66c90,000$59,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,599.9931240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f60…bbccbacked Colts6c89,279$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0002828.6%8 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked 49ers80c81,755$65,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,628.83070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Colts30c80,999$24,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,299.7216545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Colts31c79,675$25,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,02618650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Colts11c75,000$8,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,60013654.4%74 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed 49ers68c70,000$47,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,4009359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Colts33c67,398$22,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,241.1811544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked 49ers77c65,243$50,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,733.472470.8%17 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick68cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked 49ers78c60,261$47,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,061.687951.9%41 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Colts32c57,300$18,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,336.0827454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed 49ers66c54,066$35,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,175.2220755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked 49ers66c50,000$33,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,00011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Colts33c45,455$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0006459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked 49ers69c45,223$31,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,839.613548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-16.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked 49ers68c44,843$30,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,380.812144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed 49ers67c37,313$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,313.433056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Colts32c32,694$10,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,577.5830043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Colts18c32,242$5,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,732.931163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Colts33c30,171$9,892 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,892.076459.4%38 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Colts24c30,118$7,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,185.9473651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked Colts4c29,900$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2873724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ca8…bf49backed Colts34c29,412$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Colts6c26,429$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,633.227736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed 49ers68c25,961$17,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,184.7114951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked 49ers67c23,520$15,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,821.211,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7c…357dbacked 49ers76c20,475$15,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,961.791662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked 49ers66c20,000$13,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8001,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…d4bfbacked 49ers67c20,000$13,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,600450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9b…945abacked 49ers68c20,000$13,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,499.96475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+28%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed 49ers68c19,725$13,321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,403.7821254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc31…4a51backed 49ers69c19,723$13,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,114.193256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed 49ers68c17,652$12,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,648.722740.7%11 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9dd…3cc5backed Colts19c17,541$3,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,363.011931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+28.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed 49ers67c17,340$11,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,728.6760049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea32…8870backed 49ers67c16,418$11,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,417.91250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Colts0c16,120$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.72980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed 49ers67c16,000$10,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,279.995850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Colts34c15,290$5,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,208.4212944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed 49ers76c15,059$11,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,586.725356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8166…6770backed 49ers67c14,929$10,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,926.451361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cec…1a24backed Colts34c14,706$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.36per pick48cpaid+73%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa5f…005fbacked 49ers69c14,028$9,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,348.78887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick71cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0efb…6cccbacked Colts12c13,404$1,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,581.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b5f…1ae6backed 49ers70c12,314$8,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,694.284341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Colts23c11,740$2,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,711.2323244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked 49ers68c11,660$7,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,731.22965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2984…0fc6backed 49ers67c11,366$7,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,788.34744.7%21 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-20%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Colts30c11,025$3,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,319.3723937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Colts13c10,936$1,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,398.0920026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed 49ers66c10,890$7,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,702.656764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3d7d…ec26backed 49ers58c10,396$6,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,386.971936.8%7 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick57cpaid-41.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed 49ers68c10,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2007255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked 49ers66c10,000$6,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4007464.9%48 W · 26 L+9.8wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+28.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8b8c…9390backed 49ers67c10,000$6,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3007558.7%44 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2838…fdd3backed Colts31c10,000$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1002544%11 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 49ers69c10,000$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,099.9839447.7%188 W · 206 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b1…faebbacked Colts17c9,953$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.277737.7%29 W · 48 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f73…f55dbacked 49ers59c8,508$4,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,511.21475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+46.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Colts19c8,215$1,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.4631056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19ff…d0d0backed Colts31c8,202$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.994240.5%17 W · 25 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e68…3215backed Colts34c8,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7201855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked 49ers68c7,353$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,352.947147.9%34 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Colts34c7,349$2,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,498.743138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed 49ers66c7,117$4,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,419.843351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36c8…53a9backed Colts20c6,737$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.891833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed 49ers68c6,410$4,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,051.24362.8%27 W · 16 L+4.3wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Colts35c6,352$2,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,235.775852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4afd…4d18backed Colts16c6,218$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.93339.4%13 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Colts24c5,967$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.2350242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f9…2aa8backed 49ers67c5,932$4,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.2529059.7%173 W · 117 L+14.4wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x699f…d5c6backed 49ers69c5,836$4,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.35442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc1c…9b59backed Colts14c5,724$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1153…493abacked 49ers76c5,540$4,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0886backed Colts11c5,336$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.5115132.5%49 W · 102 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Colts2c5,120$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.5919235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed 49ers78c5,114$4,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.1516254.9%89 W · 73 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30ad…6a69backed Colts1c5,082$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.584944.9%22 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a55…394ebacked Colts34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7006639.4%26 W · 40 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked 49ers68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6002360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+26.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked 49ers67c5,000$3,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6504436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked 49ers80c4,981$3,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$996.2783147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28b1…5a3fbacked 49ers67c4,760$3,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570.729359.1%55 W · 38 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5b…029cbacked Colts21c4,759$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.491233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e03…7f54backed Colts23c4,750$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.52020%4 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed 49ers68c4,706$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,505.885650%28 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed 49ers69c4,180$2,902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.2131854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed 49ers67c4,030$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.8511156.8%63 W · 48 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f84…a3b4backed 49ers69c4,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc632…f0a6backed Colts32c4,000$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9397…ceb4backed 49ers68c4,000$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.