TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdddc…ced2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
411
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: NHL, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 58 out of 100; worst CS2 at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT12541.6%52 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 125 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trail Blazers vs. Spursbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,093Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,092.92
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$445Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+170.5%+$758.15
Timberwolves vs. Magicbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$440Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$439.66
Timberwolves vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.96
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$551.24
Bulls vs. Knicksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$688Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$687.89
Trail Blazers vs. Clippersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$694Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$1,234.22
Suns vs. Magicbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$445Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$444.86
Warriors vs. Nuggetsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$262.68
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$316Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$315.82
Heat vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$448.62
Mavericks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+150.1%+$750.25
Bulls vs. Thunderbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$199
Hawks vs. Celticsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,754Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,754.1
Bucks vs. Clippersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,735Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+325.2%+$5,642.02
Thunder vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$382Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$382
Bucks vs. Sunsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+300%+$600
76ers vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Thunder vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$209.43
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.63
Thunder vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.08
Pistons vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.93
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Trail Blazers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$277Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$876.66
Showing 25 of 125 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT8936%32 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 89 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Blockx vs Alex de Minaurbacked Alexander Blockx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Set 1 Winner: Johns vs Silvabacked Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$30.27
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Tomas Etcheverrybacked Tomas Etcheverry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$276.54
Wuning: Li Tu vs Alastair Graybacked Alastair Gray · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$427.49
Mexico City: Tibo Colson vs Miguel Tobonbacked Miguel Tobon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$340.47
Mexico City: Daniel Milavsky vs Juan Pablo Ficovichbacked Daniel Milavsky · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.19
San Luis Potosi: Nicolas Mejia vs Tristan Schoolkatebacked Tristan Schoolkate · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$381Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$381.37
Copa Colsanitas: Panna Udvardy vs Emiliana Arangobacked Emiliana Arango · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$115.61
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Iva Jovicbacked Iva Jovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.31
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tommy Paul vs Frances Tiafoebacked Frances Tiafoe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$197Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$197.4
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alexei Popyrin vs Frances Tiafoebacked Alexei Popyrin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.63
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tomas Etcheverry vs Tommy Paulbacked Tomas Etcheverry · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$480Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$480.08
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Ben Shelton vs Thiago Agustin Tirantebacked Thiago Agustin Tirante · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$409Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+194.4%+$794.49
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Diana Shnaiderbacked Diana Shnaider · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$406Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$406.18
Bucharest Open: Alex Molcan vs Mariano Navonebacked Alex Molcan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$322.21
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Ben Shelton vs Zhizhen Zhangbacked Zhizhen Zhang · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$336.24
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Mackenzie McDonaldbacked Mackenzie McDonald · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,299.56
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tomas Etcheverry vs Alex Boltbacked Alex Bolt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$964Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$963.55
Credit One Charleston Open: Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Putintsevabacked Yulia Putintseva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$483Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$482.65
Menorca: Daniel Rincon vs Frederico Ferreira Silvabacked Daniel Rincon · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$979Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+54.2%+$530.76
Bucharest Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Alex Molcanbacked Alex Molcan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$482Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$694.04
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Tomas Etcheverry vs Federico Agustin Gomezbacked Federico Agustin Gomez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$211Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$211.28
Credit One Charleston Open: Katie Volynets vs Diana Shnaiderbacked Katie Volynets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$485Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$485.15
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Alex Michelsen vs Coleman Wongbacked Coleman Wong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$439.05
Credit One Charleston Open: Polina Kudermetova vs Oleksandra Oliynykovabacked Oleksandra Oliynykova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$359Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$358.65
Showing 25 of 89 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT7839.7%31 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 78 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked TCU Horned Frogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.84
Penn Quakers vs. Yale Bulldogsbacked Penn Quakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+400%+$370.91
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Virginia Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.07
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Wisconsin Badgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.71
UNLV Runnin' Rebels vs. Nevada Wolf Packbacked UNLV Runnin' Rebels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$830Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$829.94
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. South Dakota State Jackrabbitsbacked Oral Roberts Golden Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$329.56
LSU Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocksbacked South Carolina Gamecocks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$161.24
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Utah State Aggiesbacked San Diego State Aztecs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$1,107.42
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. UCF Knightsbacked UCF Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,454Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+80.6%+$1,171.96
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Saint Peter's Peacocksbacked Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$621Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$620.68
California Golden Bears vs. Florida State Seminolesbacked California Golden Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$107.26
Lehigh Mountain Hawks vs. Army Black Knightsbacked Army Black Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$188Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+117.4%+$220.53
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Nevada Wolf Packbacked Grand Canyon Antelopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,838Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$1,837.54
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Indiana Hoosiersbacked Indiana Hoosiers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$714Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+227.8%+$1,626.98
New Orleans Privateers vs. Nicholls Colonelsbacked New Orleans Privateers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$939Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+161.8%+$1,519.08
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. South Florida Bullsbacked Florida Atlantic Owls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$220.97
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Eastern Michigan Eaglesbacked Eastern Michigan Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$841Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$841.04
Queens (NC) Royals vs. West Georgia Wolvesbacked West Georgia Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$503Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+67.5%+$339.83
Towson Tigers vs. North Carolina A&T Aggiesbacked North Carolina A&T Aggies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,999Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+277.2%+$5,540.38
Utah State Aggies vs. Colorado State Ramsbacked Colorado State Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,999Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$1,999
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knightsbacked Rutgers Scarlet Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,843Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$1,843.39
East Carolina Pirates vs. North Texas Mean Greenbacked East Carolina Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$528Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+244.5%+$1,291.04
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Grand Canyon Antelopesbacked Grand Canyon Antelopes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+43.1%+$20.29
Northwestern Wildcats vs. USC Trojansbacked Northwestern Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,584Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+180.8%+$2,862.66
South Dakota Coyotes vs. Omaha Mavericksbacked South Dakota Coyotes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+236.5%+$333.45
Showing 25 of 78 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST3138.7%12 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$479Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$479.22
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,071Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$1,071.25
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$999Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+107.5%+$1,074.83
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$4,236Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$4,236.36
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$670Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$669.85
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$488Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+116.5%+$568.24
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$1,500
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,302Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+212.5%+$4,891.77
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$456Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$455.9
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$7,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+95.3%+$6,671.81
Packers vs. Vikingsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$964Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$963.51
Colts vs. Texansbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$187.41
Ravens vs. Steelersbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$207.42
Cardinals vs. Ramsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,447Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$1,447.28
Panthers vs. Buccaneersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,749Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,749.29
Bears vs. 49ersbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$3,000
Buccaneers vs. Dolphinsbacked Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,965Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+211.1%+$6,260.81
Broncos vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$1,500
Lions vs. Vikingsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$3,500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+141.8%+$4,963.54
Cowboys vs. Commandersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$2,500
49ers vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$2,499Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$2,498.74
Patriots vs. Ravensbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,300Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+177.8%+$4,088.89
Chargers vs. Cowboysbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+108.3%+$2,708.33
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+66.7%+$1,666.67
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT1936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Hailey Cowan vs. Alice Pereira (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims)backed Alice Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$358Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$95.12
UFC Fight Night: Tresean Gore vs. Azamat Bekoev (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Tresean Gore · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+322.9%+$270.52
UFC Fight Night: Movsar Evloev vs. Lerone Murphy (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Lerone Murphy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.61
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$999Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+222.6%+$2,224.69
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Yadong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,085Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$1,084.86
UFC 324: Lewis vs. Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Lewis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$102.94
UFC 324: Namajunas vs. Silva (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Namajunas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$500
UFC 324: Allen vs. Silva (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Allen · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$500
UFC 324: Pulyaev vs. Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims)backed Pulyaev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$100
UFC 324: Krylov vs. Bukauskas (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)backed Krylov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+101.7%+$508.55
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims)backed Perez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+156.4%+$782.05
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Royval (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Royval · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000
UFC Fight Night: Chikadze vs. Vallejos (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Chikadze · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$300
UFC 323: Moreno vs. Taira (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Moreno · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,524Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,524.33
UFC 323: Cejudo vs. Talbott (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Cejudo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$300
UFC 323: McKinney vs. Duncan (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Duncan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,044Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+81.8%+$854.37
UFC 323: Silva vs. Barber (Women's Flyweight, Prelims)backed Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$89.69
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims)backed Ferreira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$533Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+112.8%+$601.58
UFC 323: Aslan vs. Baraniewski (Light Heavyweight, Early Prelims)backed Aslan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$500
All 19 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
College Football — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Indianabacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$2,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$2,000
Navy vs. Cincinnatibacked Cincinnati · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$966Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$965.52
Rice vs. Texas Statebacked Rice · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$965Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$964.51
Ole Miss vs. Georgiabacked Ole Miss · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$439Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+127.3%+$558.97
Alabama vs. Indianabacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$732Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$732.35
Iowa vs. Vanderbiltbacked Iowa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$999Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+150%+$1,497.75
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Techbacked Coastal Carolina Chanticleers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,394Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$1,394.3
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian Statebacked Appalachian State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$2,500
Connecticut vs. Armybacked Connecticut · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$1,500
Pittsburgh vs. East Carolinabacked East Carolina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,989Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+236.9%+$7,080.61
Florida International vs. UTSA Roadrunnersbacked Florida International · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$868Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$867.57
New Mexico vs. Minnesotabacked New Mexico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$5,291Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$5,290.88
Central Michigan vs. Northwesternbacked Central Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$2,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$2,500
California vs. Hawaiibacked California · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$1,800
Toledo vs. Louisvillebacked Toledo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,499Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$1,498.75
Troy vs. Jacksonville Statebacked Jacksonville State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,585Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST+114%+$1,806.37
BYU vs. Texas Tech Red Raidersbacked BYU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,136Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$2,135.93
Vanderbilt vs. Tennesseebacked Vanderbilt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$490Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+108.3%+$530.56
Ohio State vs. Michiganbacked Michigan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$263.18
All 19 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
NHL — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.58
Sabres vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+85.5%+$427.47
Predators vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Ducks vs. Flamesbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,499Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+94.8%+$2,369.67
Ducks vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$556Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$556.21
Red Wings vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+96.3%+$1,444.22
Stars vs. Sharksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,008Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+181%+$3,635.22
Sharks vs. Kingsbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+105.1%+$525.61
Kraken vs. Canucksbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+100%+$97.65
Oilers vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+54.1%+$811.44
Blackhawks vs. Starsbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+215.9%+$3,237.78
Devils vs. Golden Knightsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2025, EST+52.6%+$789.05
Red Wings vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$1,582Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$1,581.56
Avalanche vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$908Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$907.98
Canucks vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$2,411Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+79.7%+$1,921.84
All 15 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 15, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$27.56
Will Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+108.3%+$975
Will Leicester City FC vs. West Bromwich Albion FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$239Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$239
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$964Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$963.52
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$996Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$996.35
Will Liverpool FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$484Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+107.6%+$520.47
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$97.31
Will Oxford United FC vs. Southampton FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$999Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$999.49
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$267.45
All 9 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Arouca vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+55.7%+$556.85
Will PSV vs. Heracles Almelo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$500
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,820Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$1,820
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Qairat FK win on 2025-12-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$340.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Dec 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zimbabwe vs. South Africa end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$1,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3)backed Ultra Prime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,087Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$1,087.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Freiburg vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,173Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,173.28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.