TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Pittsburgh vs. East Carolina

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
East Carolinaof Pittsburgh, East Carolina
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,125,938
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,077,012

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,125,938 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 335 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5350…2fdabacked East Carolina20c143,909$28,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115,207.143345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pittsburgh80c108,051$86,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,096.5311849.2%58 W · 60 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed East Carolina19c87,000$16,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,4703857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed East Carolina19c56,580$10,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,697.332745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed East Carolina27c50,000$13,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,499.99850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Pittsburgh78c23,753$18,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,555.2619362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Pittsburgh16c23,551$3,653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,652.8364841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Pittsburgh7c21,519$1,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4334841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed East Carolina40c21,332$8,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,893.4813933.1%46 W · 93 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed East Carolina22c19,959$4,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,568.0993548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pittsburgh22c19,159$4,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,166.5319842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…609dbacked Pittsburgh0c19,117$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d97…f263backed Pittsburgh78c18,571$14,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,538.9366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick70cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Pittsburgh61c17,621$10,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,761.3913149.6%65 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked East Carolina71c14,303$10,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,158.6758850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh32c14,127$4,588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,588.2362843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9727…335cbacked Pittsburgh17c11,305$1,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,957.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb802…5bbebacked Pittsburgh9c11,024$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-77%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed East Carolina30c10,070$2,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,080.611926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Pittsburgh80c10,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0001330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-39.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed East Carolina20c9,921$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,983.0825629.3%75 W · 181 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed East Carolina19c9,918$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,986.0565945.2%298 W · 361 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…2cd5backed Pittsburgh30c9,349$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,789.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked East Carolina38c9,313$3,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,810.9724229.3%71 W · 171 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pittsburgh34c9,284$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,159.663243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked East Carolina22c9,000$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,02052641.8%220 W · 306 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Pittsburgh3c9,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2407929.1%23 W · 56 L-8.1wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-41.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Pittsburgh69c8,645$5,932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,931.6215751%80 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Pittsburgh34c8,500$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.9911541.7%48 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Pittsburgh24c8,404$2,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,057.589124.2%22 W · 69 L-5.6wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pittsburgh13c8,353$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.5340541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Pittsburgh80c8,000$6,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,3909844.9%44 W · 54 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-10.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed East Carolina20c7,765$1,553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,211.938450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf7e…339abacked Pittsburgh69c5,224$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,600333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-55.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed East Carolina22c4,336$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,380.652449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Pittsburgh78c4,254$3,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,318.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed East Carolina77c4,251$3,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$971.511637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Pittsburgh75c4,216$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,15054243.2%234 W · 308 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed East Carolina58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6803030%9 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed East Carolina53c3,752$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.0120553.7%110 W · 95 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Pittsburgh64c3,467$2,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2092751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed Pittsburgh51c3,381$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,723.61520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-53.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed East Carolina22c3,333$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,597.717642.1%32 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed East Carolina22c3,300$726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5747846.2%36 W · 42 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x34ad…040abacked East Carolina27c3,298$879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.58933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed East Carolina73c3,218$2,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed East Carolina72c3,159$2,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89786243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…dd9fbacked Pittsburgh56c3,140$1,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7651323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83a8…f08fbacked Pittsburgh80c2,900$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed East Carolina19c2,625$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.759457.4%54 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Pittsburgh34c2,564$861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.646753.7%36 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Pittsburgh78c2,562$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-47.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d1c…f13cbacked East Carolina39c2,539$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.711546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d43…bc5ebacked East Carolina22c2,500$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9502152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed East Carolina16c2,490$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.786046.7%28 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Pittsburgh1c2,443$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.432370.8%2 W · 235 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-98.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Pittsburgh76c2,300$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7414257.1%24 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked East Carolina21c2,069$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.5722030.5%67 W · 153 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Pittsburgh67c2,060$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,376.62630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-47.6%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x67e3…e5b3backed Pittsburgh7c1,963$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.875127.5%14 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7efc…bea6backed Pittsburgh39c1,900$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.95475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed East Carolina49c1,701$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.995345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed4…4547backed East Carolina19c1,600$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2947254.2%39 W · 33 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pittsburgh78c1,598$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.322,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4cf…2d96backed East Carolina21c1,589$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.972352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked East Carolina19c1,500$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,21513417.2%23 W · 111 L-8.3wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb789…f50bbacked Pittsburgh1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf642…0c19backed East Carolina22c1,450$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1315147.1%24 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd50c…76c3backed Pittsburgh71c1,435$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.67757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Pittsburgh77c1,374$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.3250358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Pittsburgh69c1,323$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.8229055.2%160 W · 130 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed East Carolina50c1,309$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.621656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked East Carolina53c1,301$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.0457144.7%255 W · 316 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Pittsburgh65c1,208$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782.1513845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed East Carolina23c1,148$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.833141.9%13 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked East Carolina20c1,105$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8849053.3%48 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Pittsburgh73c1,100$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8034959.2%29 W · 20 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfca…68fcbacked East Carolina22c1,100$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85847131.4%148 W · 323 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked East Carolina80c1,046$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.798749.4%43 W · 44 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed East Carolina34c1,035$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$683.3919849%97 W · 101 L-6.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed East Carolina19c1,030$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.43933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc76…f087backed East Carolina50c1,005$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Pittsburgh78c1,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7801947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed East Carolina21c1,000$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790580%4 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick40cpaid+115.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Pittsburgh78c1,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78010242.2%43 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked East Carolina16c1,000$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84042244.5%188 W · 234 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6f0…5701backed Pittsburgh14c962.34$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.761844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a3…102cbacked East Carolina21c960.53$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.891747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3999…90cfbacked Pittsburgh38c921.58$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d4…4e71backed Pittsburgh66c900.57$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.753265.6%21 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Pittsburgh41c865.48$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.1126939.8%107 W · 162 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a0c…9db8backed East Carolina22c864.5$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.253138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Pittsburgh77c814.85$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63029351.9%152 W · 141 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Pittsburgh60c809.29$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.5412450.8%63 W · 61 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f85…bd8cbacked Pittsburgh78c800$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed East Carolina24c800$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60813444%59 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3383…c5c0backed East Carolina22c800$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6241100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5de1…d097backed Pittsburgh52c742.83$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0e…c6a8backed East Carolina73c732.91$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb9…7bf4backed Pittsburgh26c718.25$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-70.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.