TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Suns, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,692,256
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,791,631

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,692,256 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,526 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc6b6…13acbacked Suns47c142,530$66,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,989.044742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe934…640bbacked Magic54c128,288$69,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,012.563860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic57c104,550$59,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,975.41,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Magic54c100,000$54,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,999.958750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Magic63c97,659$61,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,960.4566248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Magic54c89,290$48,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,656.3136549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcae4…e479backed Suns44c77,654$34,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,123.153151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Magic65c76,617$50,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,544.4120744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Suns35c70,269$24,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,675.6342348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Suns39c61,930$24,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,235.6620352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Suns47c61,512$28,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,910.481,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Suns45c60,161$27,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,072.3737539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033d…fd1ebacked Suns28c52,072$14,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,450.8210252%53 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Suns46c51,055$23,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,485.31,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Magic69c49,962$34,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,388.9559646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b03…2c36backed Suns45c49,527$22,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,108.46944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic53c48,928$26,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,927.054,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe5…b317backed Magic53c48,704$26,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,677.142360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Suns30c47,233$14,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,323.51,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Suns32c43,395$14,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,089.244257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f5…1079backed Suns28c40,802$11,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,570.765048%24 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Suns27c38,883$10,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,589.711,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c36…7854backed Suns47c38,728$18,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,202.162263.6%14 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6f…e0ddbacked Suns39c33,160$12,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,784.636744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Magic69c32,046$21,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,052.92,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5877…d894backed Suns47c30,153$14,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,171.849043.3%39 W · 51 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Suns27c30,000$8,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,049.991,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic53c29,679$15,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,802.091,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2580…1d56backed Suns34c28,261$9,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,603.7511737.6%44 W · 73 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x445f…07d4backed Magic52c27,370$14,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,137.462050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Suns46c27,093$12,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,462.6910930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Suns46c26,296$12,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,149.398763.2%55 W · 32 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic69c24,743$16,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,788.241,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Magic53c24,000$12,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,279.8215952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Magic54c20,359$10,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,365.0514842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Suns35c20,289$7,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,085.5289444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Magic53c20,000$10,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,40018045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c15…35aebacked Suns46c19,999$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,199.7210236.3%37 W · 65 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns42c19,983$8,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,388.482,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Suns35c19,582$6,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,794.923,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5c…4302backed Magic63c18,217$11,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,772.0210952.3%57 W · 52 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic67c17,739$11,966 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,772.551,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf2b…2cd8backed Suns22c16,651$3,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,650.948560%51 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Suns47c15,000$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,999.9819751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Magic53c14,595$7,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,859.8116640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Magic54c14,586$7,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,709.5638251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Magic65c13,651$8,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,725.315064%32 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8a…8723backed Magic66c13,381$8,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,510.055633.9%19 W · 37 L-4.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-40.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Suns21c13,118$2,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.281,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Magic55c13,090$7,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,890.4841832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Suns46c13,045$6,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,015.746547.7%31 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Magic56c12,904$7,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,694.461,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Magic54c12,779$6,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,928.4315844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Magic53c12,000$6,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,64074748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Suns38c11,778$4,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,479.138,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b52…568ebacked Magic74c11,640$8,585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,054.514963.3%31 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic54c10,727$5,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,951.622,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Magic54c10,435$5,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,765.8665939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd6b…91d6backed Suns46c10,404$4,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,784.51862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+56.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Suns32c10,118$3,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,226.22,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Magic53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,7006144.3%27 W · 34 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed Suns35c10,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,45011558.3%67 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05c4…a4f2backed Suns46c10,000$4,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,639.9912045%54 W · 66 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Magic53c10,000$5,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,699.9431445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd408…e85cbacked Magic75c9,876$7,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,480.588061.3%49 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Magic53c9,852$5,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,609.051,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Suns44c9,677$4,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,227.0826444.7%118 W · 146 L-15.8wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Magic53c9,265$4,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,354.626,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Suns40c9,069$3,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,633.3338143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x512f…e2fdbacked Suns47c8,596$4,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,040.31757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+36.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Suns46c8,593$3,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,952.9535251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Magic55c8,512$4,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,800.8962347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06a…dbeebacked Magic53c8,434$4,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,964.21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f8d…a19bbacked Suns52c8,252$4,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,290.793751.4%19 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…c7e5backed Suns32c8,166$2,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,609.757269.4%50 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Suns44c8,021$3,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,545.432540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Magic53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,759.961,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Suns30c7,698$2,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,304.5624937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Suns31c7,507$2,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,348.3427865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Magic54c7,123$3,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,264.886641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic53c7,103$3,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,351.864,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Magic55c6,934$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0941,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Suns35c6,630$2,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.5230840.9%126 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Magic53c6,538$3,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,072.878728.7%25 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Suns28c6,436$1,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,807.999330.1%28 W · 65 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Suns29c6,361$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.6678445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc57…f5f4backed Suns47c6,064$2,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,849.8510850.9%55 W · 53 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Magic67c6,033$4,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,998.6817051.8%88 W · 82 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc689…5250backed Magic53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,819.993767.6%25 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Magic64c5,979$3,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,180.5387750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb93d…f0c4backed Magic54c5,932$3,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,728.553076.7%23 W · 7 L+8.8wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+69.9%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x55d1…4c30backed Magic53c5,929$3,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,786.52742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Magic53c5,924$3,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,784.2557950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Magic75c5,900$4,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47511335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Suns46c5,890$2,709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.2810746.7%50 W · 57 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae82…ebf1backed Suns47c5,809$2,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,730.321520%3 W · 12 L-4.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-38.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed Suns46c5,650$2,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,594.5411738.5%45 W · 72 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0416…9b31backed Magic54c5,647$3,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,597.681752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Suns33c5,566$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.111342.5%48 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9d…992bbacked Suns44c5,504$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,424.9911834.7%41 W · 77 L-9.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.