NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2ce76406e925f774a0e2de75aadd2d7105fd5a5a5b05075007e24b039d7b177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Suns | 48c | 21,355$10,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,250.02 | 1,374 | 50.1%689 W · 685 L | +34.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Magic | 52c | 12,344$6,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,925.08 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Magic | 52c | 7,964$4,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,822.64 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 49c | 7,019$3,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,439.52 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 46c | 5,109$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.58 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Magic | 51c | 4,506$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,207.87 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Magic | 52c | 3,081$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,479.69 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba12…6a47backed Magic | 51c | 2,846$1,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.51 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Magic | 52c | 2,312$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.92 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Suns | 47c | 1,651$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.07 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Magic | 53c | 1,540$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.94 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Suns | 49c | 1,385$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.58 | 219 | 57.1%125 W · 94 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3b…0230backed Magic | 75c | 1,361$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.32 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Suns | 24c | 1,250$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.47 | 241 | 38.6%93 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed Magic | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…f955backed Magic | 52c | 959.66$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.64 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Suns | 48c | 958.21$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.94 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…9992backed Magic | 52c | 905.16$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.48 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Suns | 26c | 740.55$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.85 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Suns | 33c | 655.42$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.05 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…4856backed Magic | 52c | 617.29$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.3 | 241 | 51%123 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Magic | 52c | 564.27$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.85 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Magic | 69c | 391.96$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.14 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Magic | 51c | 354.2$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.56 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Suns | 48c | 350$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Suns | 17c | 281$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.62 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Suns | 13c | 272$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Magic | 72c | 266.36$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | -7.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Suns | 48c | 231.52$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.13 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Suns | 18c | 230$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Suns | 48c | 223.06$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Suns | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Magic | 52c | 187.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Suns | 48c | 183.92$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Suns | 48c | 163.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.63 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Suns | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Suns | 48c | 132.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Suns | 52c | 124.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Magic | 52c | 118.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 584 | 50.2%293 W · 291 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Magic | 51c | 112.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.15 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…518cbacked Suns | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Suns | 49c | 95.02$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Suns | 47c | 87.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Suns | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 455 | 44.8%204 W · 251 L | +21.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Suns | 48c | 78.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…2924backed Suns | 49c | 75.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Suns | 30c | 75.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Magic | 52c | 67.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 220 | 44.5%98 W · 122 L | -14.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…f329backed Suns | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x015d…7bc7backed Suns | 49c | 58.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Magic | 53c | 54.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Suns | 46c | 50.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…2e1abacked Suns | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic | 51c | 47.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Suns | 23c | 45.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Magic | 54c | 45.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Suns | 46c | 45.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Magic | 51c | 43.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f6…bab8backed Magic | 77c | 42.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Suns | 49c | 41.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Suns | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 378 | 45%170 W · 208 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Magic | 52c | 40.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Suns | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked Suns | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…d873backed Magic | 53c | 34.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5660…27e6backed Suns | 49c | 33.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Magic | 53c | 31.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…e44fbacked Suns | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…b570backed Suns | 49c | 27.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Suns | 49c | 27.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Magic | 53c | 23.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 533 | 49.3%263 W · 270 L | -28.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Suns | 48c | 22.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Magic | 63c | 22.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…ffa1backed Magic | 52c | 21.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +72%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…839ebacked Suns | 49c | 20.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…5734backed Magic | 75c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0efb…016cbacked Magic | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-0.5)Magic won
- Collin Gillespie: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Desmond Bane: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Devin Booker: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Suns vs. MagicMagic won
- Suns vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Suns vs. Magic: 1H O/U 115.5Over won
- Suns vs. Magic: O/U 223.5Over won
- Suns vs. Magic: O/U 224.5Over won
- Suns vs. Magic: O/U 225.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.