TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Bills vs. Jaguars

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Billsof Bills, Jaguars
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,668,681
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,433,858

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,668,681 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,277 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Jaguars54c2,818,097$1,515,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515,120.692025%5 W · 15 L-5.3wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-54.3%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Bills46c2,407,457$1,106,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300,760.8912055.8%67 W · 53 L+9.0wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Jaguars54c1,017,241$548,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548,609.5630043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Jaguars54c827,661$446,937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446,936.881656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Bills46c507,455$234,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272,965.24955.1%27 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd883…edeabacked Bills50c398,253$200,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198,105.05250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5350…2fdabacked Bills46c387,138$178,955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208,183.114250%21 W · 21 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Bills46c256,701$117,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138,851.785154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+39.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Bills46c225,000$102,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122,2509359.1%55 W · 38 L+10.2wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4cbf…6cf0backed Jaguars54c185,462$99,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99,879.77560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Bills46c173,913$80,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,913.048747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c81…fce3backed Bills47c164,007$76,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,168.915250%26 W · 26 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Bills46c133,120$61,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,884.812944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Bills46c131,956$60,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,161.946764.2%43 W · 24 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+35.3%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Bills46c129,486$59,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,922.495152.9%27 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1222…2aa7backed Jaguars55c120,000$66,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,000955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…2f0dbacked Jaguars55c112,907$62,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,0991040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bills47c109,226$51,132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,093.9947348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Jaguars53c106,691$56,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,546.2624957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b8c…1556backed Bills50c100,500$50,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,064.972433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Bills46c100,000$46,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,0007554.7%41 W · 34 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Bills47c82,181$38,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,435.8316955%93 W · 76 L+15.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Jaguars53c80,756$43,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,092.3811544.3%51 W · 64 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Bills46c80,000$36,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,499.8330743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Jaguars54c73,134$39,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,293.3919152.9%101 W · 90 L+0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Bills47c72,500$33,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,6101163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+27.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb889…a430backed Bills48c72,272$34,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,581.253850%19 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Bills48c71,130$33,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,213.6911643.1%50 W · 66 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Bills47c70,981$33,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,390.131240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bills48c62,380$29,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,731.3847738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Bills51c53,428$27,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,157.353040%12 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a7…e661backed Jaguars50c50,793$25,397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,396.563522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Bills45c50,000$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,499.887042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Jaguars53c47,542$25,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,200.120755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x635c…45c6backed Jaguars53c47,170$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,00050%0 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Jaguars45c44,860$20,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,171.127454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Jaguars49c43,941$21,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,493.2323244.4%103 W · 129 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Jaguars63c43,157$27,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,040.173070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bills46c43,000$19,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,22024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Jaguars51c42,380$21,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,574.8720026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Jaguars53c40,000$21,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,199.9916051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2107…8f4cbacked Jaguars56c39,480$22,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,109.042369.6%16 W · 7 L+5.2wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+53.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Jaguars45c39,269$17,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,813.4712748%61 W · 66 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fd…f43ebacked Jaguars54c38,075$20,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,6511154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac7…59f6backed Jaguars53c38,053$20,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,168.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Jaguars52c38,000$19,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,9206645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Jaguars60c37,454$22,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,606.692441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x777d…5143backed Jaguars53c35,000$18,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,5502441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd73…bfaebacked Bills47c35,000$16,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked Bills42c34,950$14,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,1542965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x264c…8250backed Jaguars58c34,577$20,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,127.54850%4 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a72…2497backed Jaguars54c34,000$18,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,36010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jaguars54c31,254$16,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,849.9183147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Bills47c31,034$14,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,457.72552%13 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7346…c20bbacked Jaguars54c31,000$16,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,74010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1433…56a0backed Bills47c31,000$14,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,4306451.6%33 W · 31 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Bills45c30,000$13,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,5003366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5e22…4d48backed Bills47c30,000$14,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,9001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a65…15b1backed Bills46c30,000$13,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,349.99560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Jaguars52c29,036$15,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,031.0423937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bills46c26,664$12,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,454.311,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd568…a35abacked Bills43c25,118$10,777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,341.241968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+39%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Jaguars53c25,000$13,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,2505724.6%14 W · 43 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b9f…e125backed Bills60c24,886$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,885.661450%7 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked Bills47c24,802$11,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,145.132680.8%21 W · 5 L+5.5wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+37.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Jaguars53c23,900$12,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,733.0654451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Bills41c23,775$9,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,121.9513942.4%59 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jaguars56c23,023$12,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,820.6275852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Jaguars1c22,664$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.691225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Bills45c22,000$9,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,099.962657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+35.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jaguars51c21,602$10,911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,910.5873651.2%377 W · 359 L+25.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd289…079fbacked Jaguars56c21,268$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Jaguars52c21,258$11,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,157.119447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87b6…4ababacked Jaguars51c20,837$10,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,614.194452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe796…7f5ebacked Bills36c20,000$7,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,839.993724.3%9 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Bills47c20,000$9,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,649.9614342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc3e…37efbacked Bills43c19,846$8,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,241.277736.4%28 W · 49 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Jaguars51c18,978$9,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,759.8253348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba81…dc35backed Bills51c18,250$9,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,978.221353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3414…c116backed Bills47c18,000$8,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,5401100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5da4…e203backed Bills50c18,000$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,0003548.6%17 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6bc…2a05backed Jaguars54c18,000$9,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,72010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Bills58c17,879$10,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,465.6119235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Jaguars53c17,250$9,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,192.437655.3%42 W · 34 L+5.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1d1a…0df6backed Jaguars52c17,190$9,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,002.716860.7%102 W · 66 L+18.7wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4536…4237backed Jaguars55c16,362$8,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,9991346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Jaguars53c16,002$8,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,435.6856852.3%297 W · 271 L+26.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Jaguars53c15,624$8,281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,280.5516545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Jaguars55c15,209$8,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,36518650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Bills45c15,000$6,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,2004436.4%16 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Bills49c15,000$7,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,574.9824053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d3…30abbacked Jaguars55c14,866$8,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,107.143850%19 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Jaguars53c14,124$7,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,485.633844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Bills51c14,000$7,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8603351.5%17 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Jaguars53c14,000$7,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4209442.6%40 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Bills46c14,000$6,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,559.982638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Jaguars52c13,405$6,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,970.7414349%70 W · 73 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Jaguars44c13,353$5,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,925.9618156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Jaguars40c12,598$5,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.185356.6%30 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Jaguars54c12,500$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,75035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.