NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20644e4fbbaef7e5ad9b67422ff038a09b063940e55a88dcaee07454bd78c1bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $258,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 49c | 153,601$75,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,000 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -6.3wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 51c | 100,000$51,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,000 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Under | 48c | 70,000$33,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,599.98 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…e842backed Over | 52c | 41,538$21,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,938.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 52c | 29,641$15,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,227.56 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 51c | 26,000$13,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,640 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Over | 51c | 14,568$7,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,138.12 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +10.2wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 5,338$2,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,556.75 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 54c | 4,835$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,235.3 | 122 | 49.2%60 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6125…1b5fbacked Over | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 48c | 2,567$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.16 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Under | 47c | 2,310$1,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,085.7 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…cc46backed Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 52c | 1,762$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.76 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 48c | 1,599$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.73 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 1,571$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.01 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Over | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 48c | 1,261$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.28 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 47c | 1,260$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.26 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 47c | 1,200$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.15 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 1,072$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.31 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Over | 54c | 926.72$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.72 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Under | 48c | 901.46$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 48c | 799.99$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Over | 52c | 742.85$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.57 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Over | 53c | 700$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 52c | 544.9$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.55 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…6078backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3973…2b2abacked Over | 53c | 467.92$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed Over | 52c | 415.38$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Over | 53c | 414.87$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 52c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…b13abacked Over | 52c | 234.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.62 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Over | 52c | 201.93$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.93 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 52c | 195$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…f098backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Over | 52c | 114.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.17 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 174 | 59.2%103 W · 71 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ae…811bbacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef0…7adebacked Over | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 79.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 65 | 70.8%46 W · 19 L | +11.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Over | 51c | 77.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6f…7f1fbacked Over | 52c | 77.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 52c | 75.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 63.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 47c | 63.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 47c | 60.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…a025backed Over | 53c | 56.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 47c | 51.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…18a3backed Under | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 44.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Under | 48c | 39.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefd…6526backed Over | 53c | 28.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2124…17e7backed Over | 53c | 26.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Over | 53c | 25.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad0…5d99backed Over | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 47c | 21.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Over | 52c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 50.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)Bills won
- Bills vs. JaguarsBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 54.5Under won
- Parker Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.