NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf782f6c1ba628e07bc2730d590bb4597f95a66336485a07a9d3021c26f53924e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 15c | 11,468$1,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,747.5 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +7.6wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +103%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x95ea…9ee5backed Over | 50c | 2,226$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea42…86d3backed Over | 50c | 1,734$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…1220backed Under | 50c | 1,539$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Over | 53c | 1,420$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.42 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c9…f900backed Under | 50c | 1,334$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50cf…1cc3backed Under | 50c | 1,089$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 1,048$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.29 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Over | 51c | 506.95$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.48 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -8.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 46c | 370.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 48c | 348$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.3 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Over | 55c | 289.94$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 45c | 243.21$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.77 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…33b8backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…5f12backed Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 48c | 62.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Under | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Over | 47c | 47.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Over | 52c | 39.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 199 | 54.8%109 W · 90 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb3…05e5backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)Bills won
- Bills vs. JaguarsBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 54.5Under won
- Parker Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.