NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5aa6c2d4613593a794032af37eae7677a4d2e714843ea6b7db11d6a995a5b444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Under | 50c | 20,002$10,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,100.99 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 42c | 6,216$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.83 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 50c | 5,083$2,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,541.45 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 55c | 5,068$2,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,809.48 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 2c | 4,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 2cpaid | +931.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Over | 61c | 3,975$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,564.83 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 50c | 3,722$1,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.77 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 2,897$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.91 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Over | 50c | 1,999$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.49 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 1,880$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.38 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Over | 56c | 1,832$1,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc926…8058backed Under | 79c | 1,275$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 42c | 1,191$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.01 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 15c | 1,051$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.59 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Under | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 77c | 816$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.32 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Under | 4c | 710$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Under | 7c | 672$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 37c | 589.62$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.98 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 5c | 550$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 39c | 507.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.05 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Under | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Under | 40c | 499.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…18a3backed Under | 61c | 475.6$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.61 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 25c | 380.27$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.91 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 34c | 371.41$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.63 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x812e…04d0backed Over | 33c | 346.34$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5912…2fe0backed Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Over | 45c | 314$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 40c | 271.71$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.69 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 39c | 222.33$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.34 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…829bbacked Under | 80c | 209$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Under | 50c | 201$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 53c | 182.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 149 | 52.3%78 W · 71 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 61c | 163.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 41c | 146.44$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Over | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +9.6wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 39c | 137$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ae…004ebacked Over | 25c | 130$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 49c | 122$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Under | 49c | 117$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.63 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8f…386cbacked Under | 79c | 100.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Under | 48c | 97.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 42c | 96.83$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 65 | 70.8%46 W · 19 L | +11.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 45c | 91.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…caf1backed Over | 51c | 90.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Under | 28c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Over | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 30c | 76.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…fb77backed Over | 70c | 71.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Over | 48c | 70.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 56c | 69.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…0accbacked Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Under | 78c | 64.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 59c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 58c | 59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Under | 39c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 107 | 61.7%66 W · 41 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Under | 42c | 46.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Over | 42c | 44.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 39c | 38.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 40c | 34.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…4f5ebacked Over | 39c | 32.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Under | 40c | 27.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Under | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaeba…d2d8backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 64c | 25.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…f551backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under | 51c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Over | 57c | 20.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Under | 60c | 20.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…01c1backed Over | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)Bills won
- Bills vs. JaguarsBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 54.5Under won
- Parker Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.