NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7328a867b066d24fc02ace4c5a88445130462a2b142eacba4e5c15b1bf321a0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Bills, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Jaguars | 67c | 3,722$2,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.3 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf410…ca73backed Bills | 32c | 3,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.92 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf05…70dabacked Jaguars | 73c | 2,737$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.65 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Bills | 25c | 2,540$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.05 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Jaguars | 68c | 2,198$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.26 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1656…6c04backed Bills | 33c | 2,190$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Bills | 26c | 1,500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Bills | 9c | 1,431$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.78 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +7.3wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Jaguars | 68c | 1,019$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.2 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Bills | 32c | 907.47$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.39 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Bills | 28c | 881.63$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.86 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Bills | 29c | 699.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf515…0805backed Jaguars | 70c | 411.93$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.58 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125e…583fbacked Bills | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…8cd8backed Bills | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Bills | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed Bills | 33c | 265.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba81…dc35backed Jaguars | 75c | 261$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bills | 32c | 250$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Bills | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…14f0backed Bills | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…27fabacked Bills | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 5cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Bills | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Bills | 33c | 196.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bills | 27c | 179$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f01…cbc2backed Bills | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +69%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea7…657ebacked Jaguars | 75c | 125$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bills | 33c | 121.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bills | 29c | 110.85$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Jaguars | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Bills | 32c | 73.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…0473backed Jaguars | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Jaguars | 70c | 64.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jaguars | 69c | 62.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Bills | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…b6f1backed Bills | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Jaguars | 68c | 43.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Bills | 30c | 41.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed Jaguars | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Bills | 31c | 35.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 245 | 47.8%117 W · 128 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd32…8580backed Jaguars | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc716…f0d7backed Jaguars | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)Bills won
- Bills vs. JaguarsBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 54.5Under won
- Parker Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.