NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0e1116835a588ab171e9f0086fb0a9746531ed3b97828823b9b2bc4b176d99b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Bills, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,543
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,543 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Bills | 47c | 7,590$3,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,044.99 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…4237backed Jaguars | 58c | 5,172$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e7…52cabacked Bills | 45c | 4,444$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,444.44 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jaguars | 55c | 3,854$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.89 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77a3…0e3fbacked Jaguars | 56c | 3,540$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Jaguars | 57c | 3,158$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…efd2backed Bills | 45c | 2,443$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.76 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Jaguars | 55c | 2,398$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.1 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bills | 45c | 2,065$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,136.06 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bills | 43c | 1,725$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.26 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…19cebacked Jaguars | 57c | 1,478$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Bills | 45c | 1,378$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.78 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Bills | 44c | 1,095$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Jaguars | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 394 | 47.7%188 W · 206 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1243…2a64backed Jaguars | 57c | 973.51$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Jaguars | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bills | 45c | 693.01$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.09 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…ebeabacked Jaguars | 55c | 638.6$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Jaguars | 56c | 598.3$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Bills | 43c | 580$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.6 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bills | 43c | 499.99$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Jaguars | 57c | 407.02$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…cf7fbacked Bills | 45c | 266.67$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +6.9wins | +0.30per pick | 35cpaid | +91%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Jaguars | 53c | 266.04$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…469fbacked Jaguars | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Bills | 47c | 219.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.59 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Bills | 48c | 209$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.68 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Bills | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9f…b918backed Bills | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Jaguars | 55c | 183.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Bills | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x036a…4c9abacked Bills | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Jaguars | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Bills | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…b1e0backed Bills | 46c | 99.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bills | 45c | 91.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…1f12backed Jaguars | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Bills | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Jaguars | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Jaguars | 52c | 84.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Bills | 51c | 63.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Jaguars | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a30…532fbacked Jaguars | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Jaguars | 57c | 44.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 65 | 70.8%46 W · 19 L | +11.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Jaguars | 53c | 43.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Bills | 57c | 43.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x522b…5160backed Bills | 56c | 42.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1760…c4edbacked Bills | 48c | 41.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Bills | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 108 | 58.3%63 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…5bb9backed Jaguars | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -59%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Bills | 44c | 30.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c1…7487backed Bills | 48c | 29.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1511…1f11backed Jaguars | 56c | 27.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Jaguars | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cc…00d9backed Jaguars | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bills | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Bills | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Bills | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 203 | 54.7%111 W · 92 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Bills | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Jaguars | 55c | 19.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)Bills won
- Bills vs. JaguarsBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 54.5Under won
- Parker Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.