NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ed2ef8b26d8fe2e2781f2402d818b9fc9da7cc905619c8e214ffa941775fb09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Billsof Bills, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3ae…3020backed Jaguars | 56c | 89,402$50,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,000.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Bills | 44c | 86,669$38,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,585.79 | 169 | 55%93 W · 76 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Bills | 46c | 15,098$6,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,102.81 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07c8…2696backed Jaguars | 56c | 13,857$7,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,762.9 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Jaguars | 53c | 8,873$4,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,702.76 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x201c…58bfbacked Bills | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +9.8wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Jaguars | 54c | 3,959$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.26 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Bills | 45c | 2,794$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.83 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Jaguars | 55c | 2,404$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.3 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Bills | 44c | 2,310$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.51 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddf2…d27abacked Bills | 47c | 2,237$1,051 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Bills | 47c | 1,946$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.18 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Bills | 48c | 1,900$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.92 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bills | 44c | 1,552$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.05 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Bills | 44c | 1,046$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.69 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jaguars | 52c | 952.76$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.31 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…ce10backed Jaguars | 55c | 939.8$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Bills | 44c | 815.69$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.79 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Jaguars | 57c | 738.75$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.09 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Bills | 45c | 680.99$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.82 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Jaguars | 53c | 679.25$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Bills | 46c | 560$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.4 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Bills | 44c | 350$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Jaguars | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Jaguars | 53c | 218$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.54 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Jaguars | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Jaguars | 53c | 151.84$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…4e76backed Bills | 45c | 147.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Bills | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…4fe2backed Jaguars | 53c | 116.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1de…63e5backed Jaguars | 56c | 111.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Jaguars | 15c | 111.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Bills | 44c | 102.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Bills | 45c | 102.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Jaguars | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…47efbacked Jaguars | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…e00abacked Bills | 46c | 96.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Bills | 44c | 78.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 209 | 44.5%93 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Bills | 45c | 61.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Jaguars | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Bills | 45c | 55.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…e608backed Jaguars | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…5cc6backed Bills | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…a458backed Bills | 45c | 44.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Bills | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9201…e578backed Bills | 62c | 43.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d2…4abfbacked Bills | 46c | 42.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc664…6792backed Bills | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +69%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ff63backed Jaguars | 59c | 39.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d22…95b7backed Jaguars | 53c | 37.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Jaguars | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…1e06backed Jaguars | 55c | 36.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed Bills | 50c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bills | 45c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Bills | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Bills | 44c | 24.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +6.1wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Jaguars | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Jaguars | 55c | 21.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Jaguars | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…b8a0backed Jaguars | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jaguars | 53c | 19.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)Bills won
- Bills vs. JaguarsBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 54.5Under won
- Parker Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.