NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d25344156d64349e50bd6f2693f51ce8bd79a20675d96330eaa5288dac3f1a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Over | 48c | 1,931$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 52c | 1,860$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.24 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 37c | 683.23$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.8 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 37c | 680.95$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.04 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Under | 37c | 587.36$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.32 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Over | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 193 | 61.7%119 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…18a3backed Under | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Over | 63c | 190.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 63c | 182$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.16 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Over | 60c | 164.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 53c | 149.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.38 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 63c | 130$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 34c | 129.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked Over | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x230b…1e27backed Under | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Over | 60c | 114$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Over | 57c | 112.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.62 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 109$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9038…f74cbacked Over | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…efcbbacked Over | 63c | 83.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 40c | 80.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 65 | 70.8%46 W · 19 L | +11.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 56c | 74.76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6dd…0accbacked Over | 63c | 71.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 48c | 64.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Over | 59c | 59.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Over | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadc3…d089backed Over | 63c | 50.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae0b…cee7backed Under | 39c | 50.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 37c | 46.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Under | 46c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 45c | 39.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 37c | 37.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…73f1backed Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.6wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +117.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 63c | 26.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…6563backed Over | 62c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Over | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 57c | 21.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)Bills won
- Bills vs. JaguarsBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 54.5Under won
- Parker Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.