NFL · resolved market
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 54.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6004a7c14d8456af2ae8120048925dc9fba9d4718eed8205e2ec5382961adfe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,398
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,398 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 12c | 15,991$1,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995.69 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 20c | 6,466$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.7 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Over | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.99 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 58c | 4,057$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.44 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 16c | 3,978$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.86 | 127 | 48%61 W · 66 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af5…2470backed Over | 43c | 3,300$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc926…8058backed Under | 66c | 2,108$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Under | 60c | 2,002$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 59c | 1,972$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.11 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b3…49f8backed Over | 41c | 1,950$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 59c | 1,950$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.49 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Under | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…669fbacked Over | 8c | 1,100$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.7 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Over | 5c | 1,100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 54 | 9.3%5 W · 49 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 41c | 1,071$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.19 | 204 | 43.6%89 W · 115 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…7d87backed Over | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Over | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…18a3backed Under | 77c | 815.52$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.24 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Over | 37c | 781.41$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.46 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 7c | 600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 19c | 529.01$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.25 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 48c | 522.06$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 52c | 444.06$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.15 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d7…6424backed Under | 80c | 413.83$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 26c | 387.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 60c | 321.66$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Over | 40c | 296.53$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 208 | 51%106 W · 102 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Under | 60c | 290$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 23c | 268.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…bbf9backed Under | 59c | 243.43$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.81 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 19c | 229$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 320 | 43.8%140 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 12c | 218.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 18c | 203.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 148 | 44.6%66 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Over | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Under | 75c | 198.68$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…ebf3backed Under | 70c | 175.62$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Under | 75c | 175$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…4568backed Under | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Under | 72c | 165$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Under | 68c | 141$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.42 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +10.7wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 14c | 128.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 266 | 49.6%132 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 60c | 106.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 65 | 70.8%46 W · 19 L | +11.6wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 42c | 106$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 12c | 98.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Under | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Over | 26c | 74.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +8.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Over | 29c | 63.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 40c | 63.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 75c | 58.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 79c | 51.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -8.0wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a73…dad6backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea1…6072backed Under | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf46…a799backed Under | 60c | 45.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Over | 25c | 45.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.1wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 58c | 44.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5876…793fbacked Under | 71c | 41.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…956bbacked Under | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed Under | 55c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 54.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-0.5)Bills won
- Bills vs. JaguarsBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H MoneylineBills won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: 1H O/U 24.5Under won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 47.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 48.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 50.5Over won
- Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5Under won
- Parker Washington: Receiving Yards O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-1.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)Bills won
- Spread: Bills (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Bills (-4.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.