TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x036a…4c9a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 51 out of 100; worst NFL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST5648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,080Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+47.1%+$508.24
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$427Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+69.5%+$296.73
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+42.9%+$107.14
Spread: Rams (-3.5)backed Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+104.1%+$165.49
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+110.1%+$185.01
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)backed Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+112.8%+$84.57
Spread: Broncos (-1.5)backed Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$109
Spread: Patriots (-3.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+96.1%+$93.68
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$98
Spread: Bills (-1.5)backed Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+104.1%+$52.04
Spread: Packers (-1.5)backed Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+88.7%+$22.17
Spread: Rams (-10.5)backed Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+90.9%+$22.74
Spread: Bengals (-6.5)backed Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Falcons (-2.5)backed Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Spread: Vikings (-4.5)backed Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+69.5%+$17.37
Spread: Bengals (-7.5)backed Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Ravens (-3.5)backed Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Spread: Patriots (-10.5)backed Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Bears (-2.5)backed Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$93
Spread: Eagles (-7.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Eagles (-4.5)backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Broncos (-7.5)backed Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+49.3%+$24.63
Spread: Rams (-9.5)backed Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Spread: Bills (-8.5)backed Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+112.8%+$56.38
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+36.1%+$70.97
Arizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$94.64
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illinibacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.52
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$148.84
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$32.25
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-6.5)backed Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.57
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcatsbacked Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.81
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$17.45
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5)backed Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$40.55
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$77.23
Will Houston win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-57.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$75.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+33.8%+$33.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trudeau resigns by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+28.2%+$98.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Johnny Walker · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.27
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.