Us Politics · resolved market
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c66114d2dfe2139325cc7a408a5cd5d2e73b55d919e2141b3a0ed83fc15895d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,807,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,148,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,807,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 7,597 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcaf4…6bf6backed No | 26c | 750,267$193,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193,722.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…82cebacked Yes | 78c | 674,872$525,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149,838.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 68c | 521,695$352,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169,070.94 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…481fbacked No | 29c | 502,085$146,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146,282.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba9…a9f2backed Yes | 75c | 396,608$296,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,476.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd295…2f46backed No | 25c | 384,128$97,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97,180.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 75c | 360,771$271,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88,843.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5333…0427backed No | 10c | 355,662$34,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,217.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed No | 27c | 316,108$86,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86,455.22 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 77c | 281,768$216,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216,466.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a60…d019backed Yes | 67c | 281,541$190,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91,532.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7896…3e00backed No | 8c | 244,434$18,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,434.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…e710backed No | 0c | 212,601$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed No | 13c | 192,196$24,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,916.06 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 71c | 191,082$136,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,641.43 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…5a52backed No | 13c | 185,080$24,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,287.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdf…6c07backed Yes | 57c | 162,698$93,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,181.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 51c | 151,857$77,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,007.11 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47aa…f1bbbacked Yes | 78c | 145,535$113,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,507.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked No | 10c | 142,079$14,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,332.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 68c | 139,255$94,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,551.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…27bbbacked No | 37c | 137,860$50,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,862.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 67c | 136,100$91,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,655.24 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…35febacked No | 31c | 134,329$41,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,988.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…9334backed Yes | 75c | 133,562$100,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,404.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdb…37afbacked No | 27c | 131,751$35,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,051.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd726…ec9ebacked No | 18c | 126,385$22,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,903.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…79bdbacked No | 9c | 125,224$11,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,542.73 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba66…f59dbacked No | 40c | 120,000$47,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,399.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 29c | 106,129$30,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,776.05 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 70c | 102,322$72,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,269.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8732…a5c1backed No | 79c | 96,102$75,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75,973.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…e2fdbacked Yes | 76c | 93,080$70,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,489.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f2…98cfbacked No | 32c | 92,594$29,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,590.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bde…8c91backed No | 13c | 89,325$11,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,571.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5303…d66ebacked No | 23c | 86,096$19,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,401.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…c92fbacked Yes | 78c | 85,127$66,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,494.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 65c | 84,976$55,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,453.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…44b8backed Yes | 68c | 84,709$57,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,370.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 23c | 80,691$18,426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62,264.7 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…af58backed No | 26c | 80,451$21,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,086.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…7df9backed No | 35c | 79,221$27,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,605.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x444b…add1backed Yes | 70c | 77,284$54,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,280.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…12f6backed No | 16c | 76,805$12,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,126.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…599fbacked Yes | 69c | 75,989$52,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,452.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…eda2backed Yes | 57c | 75,698$43,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,518.45 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…77d2backed No | 24c | 72,157$16,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,995.45 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df2…b7cebacked Yes | 73c | 70,646$51,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,293.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 74c | 70,290$51,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,475.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 14c | 68,147$9,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,343.87 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed No | 14c | 68,049$9,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,526.31 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b8…4233backed Yes | 70c | 67,402$47,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,216.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked No | 18c | 66,303$11,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,651.98 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…6e1fbacked No | 11c | 65,439$7,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,227.28 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…4a37backed Yes | 52c | 64,209$33,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,065.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 30c | 63,817$19,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,270.92 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f8…569fbacked No | 0c | 61,749$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…b193backed No | 26c | 57,962$15,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,217.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 9c | 56,564$5,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,083.23 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3731…fb76backed No | 32c | 56,335$17,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,930.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e06…15d5backed Yes | 24c | 54,722$13,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,628.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +317.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc251…b9c3backed Yes | 69c | 54,410$37,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,917.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242e…ee63backed No | 37c | 53,535$19,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,844.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 44c | 50,434$22,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,145.7 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d94…7ab2backed No | 31c | 50,352$15,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,540.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…c4c1backed No | 10c | 49,791$4,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,764.26 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed No | 67c | 48,984$33,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,033.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +196.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…07afbacked Yes | 67c | 47,818$32,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,818.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 22c | 46,563$10,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,224.22 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef2…6d23backed No | 28c | 46,264$13,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,007.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…25a8backed Yes | 29c | 45,966$13,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,759.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +248.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…1fc3backed No | 15c | 44,695$6,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,516.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…a960backed Yes | 76c | 44,569$33,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,833.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes | 76c | 44,172$33,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,679.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 25c | 43,971$11,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,140.11 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…1a57backed No | 31c | 43,901$13,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,712.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 75c | 43,000$32,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,833.36 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd30…d288backed No | 6c | 42,349$2,751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2813…958dbacked No | 27c | 41,997$11,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,520.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x824b…8f39backed No | 34c | 41,933$14,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,454.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab1c…aaddbacked Yes | 75c | 41,413$30,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,450.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe059…e2e5backed Yes | 65c | 41,264$27,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,253.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes | 50c | 41,189$20,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,752.39 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d31…f1e0backed Yes | 69c | 40,560$28,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,545.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…4699backed Yes | 12c | 40,249$4,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,287.84 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…68abbacked No | 22c | 40,236$8,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,776.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked No | 24c | 39,396$9,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,274.23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e7…9a6fbacked Yes | 50c | 38,457$19,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,135.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…28b6backed No | 0c | 37,517$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed Yes | 78c | 37,341$28,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,371.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…c6dabacked No | 14c | 37,269$5,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,387.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a9…36bbbacked Yes | 73c | 37,059$26,969 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,089.15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 23c | 36,594$8,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,555.99 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…d2f5backed Yes | 51c | 36,206$18,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,578.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf1…70a7backed No | 29c | 36,185$10,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,648.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 66c | 36,114$23,987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,986.95 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 36c | 35,854$12,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,938.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011d…3d2fbacked No | 27c | 34,944$9,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,536.44 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -55%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…512bbacked Yes | 69c | 34,806$24,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,634.17 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Yes | 62c | 34,562$21,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,149.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.