TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7cc9…b8a8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
236
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 59 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5827.6%16 W · 42 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 58 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$7,986Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,986.22
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$4,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,179.74
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$42,612Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42,611.65
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$800
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+455.6%+$300.28
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$21,425Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$21,425.15
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$3,576Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,576.18
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$535Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$535.06
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$5,195Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+129.3%+$6,717.95
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$620Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$380
Israel x Syria security agreement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+270.4%+$42.87
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$366Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66%+$241.57
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$47.4
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.99
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+363.9%+$176.5
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,328Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,328.2
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$229.2
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$124
Greta Thunberg arrested by October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$32
Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$3,590Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,589.73
Will Israel strike Yemen on September 10 ET?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$112
Israel strike on Yemen by September 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.75
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.85
Showing 25 of 58 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST4323.3%10 W · 33 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela again by January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$31.92
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+82.3%+$58.51
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$246.49
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,515Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+113.8%+$1,724.08
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$36.03
Will the Government shutdown end October 31-November 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$31.5
US forces in Venezuela by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$141.79
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$176
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+125.9%+$306.49
US-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$53
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$75.3
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,251Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+143%+$1,787.99
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.7
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$295.9
Will Trump release more Epstein files before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.79
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,849Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,849.49
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$279Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$278.71
Will turnout be greater than 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.0% on July 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.61
Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$345.99
U.S. refuels Israeli jets for strikes on Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$367Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$366.85
Another US military action against Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,388Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28%+$389.16
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with South Korea before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.5
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$82
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT3658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+41.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$406Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+368%+$1,493.98
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+212.5%+$271.99
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$136
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$927Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$927.5
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$205
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+300%+$337.5
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+94.4%+$248.5
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$60
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$359Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53%+$190.5
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$721Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$720.83
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$321.46
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$270.25
Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+900%+$225
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+38.9%+$140
Will Russia capture Yampil' by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+60%+$37.5
Will Russia capture Stepanivka by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$37
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$89.5
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+79.8%+$110.97
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+42.3%+$126.25
Nothing Ever Happens: Russian Capture Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$248
Will Russia capture Rodynske by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$638Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT+95.8%+$611.48
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST2913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will European Wax Center (EWCZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$63.99
Will Teleflex (TFX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$32
Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$15.75
Will Robinhood Markets (HOOD) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will New York Times (NYT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19.99
Will ZoomInfo Technologies (GTM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$19
Will Colgate-Palmolive (CL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.35
Will Exxon Mobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.2
Will Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Will Coinbase Global (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.42
Will Integra LifeSciences Holdings (IART) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Will Roblox (RBLX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Reddit (RDDT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.81
Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.82
Will Fox (FOXA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Will S&P Global (SPGI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.98
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+733.3%+$175.99
Will Verizon Communications (VZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$164
Will Evercore (EVR) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.2
Will Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+328.6%+$344.99
Will Texas Instruments (TXN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+900%+$135
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+420.8%+$79.17
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.5
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$541Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$541.15
Yoon in jail before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,481Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,481.2
Yoon arrested by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$288
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$2,731Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,730.61
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$6,731Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,730.59
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 3-6%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$32.5
Will there not be a new Pope in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$193.5
Will no new pope be elected in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.21
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$360
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$242Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$242.36
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$62
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,658Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+42.5%+$704.61
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$597Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$597.5
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$550Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+66.7%+$366.67
Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$937Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST+45.7%+$428.26
All 19 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST1145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.27per pick19cpaid+146%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,398Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+138.2%+$1,931.31
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$2,771Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+183.3%+$5,078.96
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,167Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+649.7%+$14,082.43
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$45,549Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45,548.54
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$216Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+85.2%+$184
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$1,208Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,208.07
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$39.72
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$58
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,519Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,519.32
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+1,150%+$184
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,294Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,293.88
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+81.8%+$180
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$78
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$82
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$97
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18,769Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$18,768.72
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$24.86
NYC Election: Sliwa drops out and Cuomo wins?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be 8% or less in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.5
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$259Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+85.2%+$220.36
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST70%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$419.68
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 1% and 0% in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$103.1
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+301.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+301.2%+$427.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson fight rigged?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2024, EST-100%-$11.29
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.