World Politics · resolved market
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcb70e357694345bcd6b1a2c7c999a352843b6044f3d36dd494ac18661c25ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,359,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,211,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,359,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf456…11f2backed Yes | 1c | 225,282$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450.27 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d52…50e6backed Yes | 2c | 104,611$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9056…df79backed Yes | 3c | 66,741$1,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,802.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 0c | 52,910$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 41,811$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.04 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 36,009$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.49 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 34,604$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.97 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe03…b130backed Yes | 0c | 32,200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…d17cbacked Yes | 2c | 28,362$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 26,354$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.57 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…ed94backed Yes | 2c | 19,244$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.64 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +2,128.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb810…b043backed Yes | 4c | 12,715$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 2c | 11,159$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.62 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…e0f7backed Yes | 7c | 10,547$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 1c | 10,278$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.16 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9a…06bebacked Yes | 2c | 9,054$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b7…5d06backed Yes | 3c | 9,001$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 1c | 8,964$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…70f2backed Yes | 6c | 8,660$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe822…8ad9backed Yes | 2c | 7,593$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd8…6f90backed Yes | 2c | 7,322$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…09e8backed Yes | 5c | 7,131$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,764$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.24 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…954ebacked Yes | 7c | 5,657$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…147abacked Yes | 4c | 5,493$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.95 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5f…1dc6backed Yes | 2c | 5,462$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.24 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…8e3bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 9cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…dcf1backed Yes | 6c | 4,973$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…8e2fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,721$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4558…a2b3backed Yes | 3c | 4,384$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb970…f622backed Yes | 2c | 3,567$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 3,542$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x145e…a4a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,235$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc898…3c31backed Yes | 1c | 2,940$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,801$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee92…8410backed Yes | 1c | 2,782$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 2c | 2,626$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 2,618$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.46 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddd…0ceebacked Yes | 4c | 2,531$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 2c | 2,495$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,293$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.48 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…4064backed Yes | 5c | 2,264$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa192…79d6backed Yes | 1c | 2,250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…93f1backed Yes | 4c | 2,248$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 2c | 2,243$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5541…33f2backed Yes | 1c | 2,233$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,213$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7056…d493backed Yes | 3c | 2,205$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,191$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1f…320cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,147$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 5c | 2,024$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…cf08backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +128.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ef…1935backed Yes | 7c | 1,991$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…08bebacked Yes | 6c | 1,956$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…a0ebbacked Yes | 5c | 1,772$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…e7b3backed Yes | 6c | 1,712$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 2c | 1,601$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…d4fbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefea…62c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,536$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b27…03b8backed Yes | 4c | 1,531$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…b84bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,481$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 7c | 1,469$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb932…148dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,464$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…6900backed Yes | 1c | 1,454$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f5…b2a0backed Yes | 2c | 1,408$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,338$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…7b5ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,335$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb032…ecdcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,334$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb73…c340backed Yes | 3c | 1,311$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 1c | 1,302$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34e1…3e80backed Yes | 4c | 1,293$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…003bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,274$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a2…d376backed Yes | 2c | 1,215$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc229…81c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,208$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 4c | 1,179$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2522…fd27backed Yes | 5c | 1,171$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…7a59backed Yes | 3c | 1,164$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01b…24a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,154$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 21cpaid | +150.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8541…297bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,112$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…6b16backed Yes | 6c | 1,083$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…8fa1backed Yes | 1c | 1,079$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e5…1ad6backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 4c | 999.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dda…411cbacked Yes | 5c | 994.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…abf2backed Yes | 3c | 961.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 3c | 912.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…6f14backed Yes | 3c | 836.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 5c | 827.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 800$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd450…fb53backed Yes | 3c | 796.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…ab22backed Yes | 8c | 761.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea94…6cbcbacked Yes | 2c | 761.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b07…fc5ebacked Yes | 6c | 756.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb942…3d50backed Yes | 6c | 746.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe844…37b6backed Yes | 3c | 730.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?this page
- Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?Yes won
- Will CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens for the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will SPD, FDP, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will another coalition form the next German Government?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.