World Politics · resolved market
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0eb62fac38bb76c90efe3ee004db68aeb88babe95879499075d5dea4c4bb2c43
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $866,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $466,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $866,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 5c | 71,352$3,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,525.81 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 50,260$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.96 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 44,100$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 43,426$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.21 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…13c2backed Yes | 2c | 31,166$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 18c | 24,629$4,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,493.44 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 19,468$1,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,652.4 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…0f7fbacked Yes | 14c | 13,416$1,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…1685backed Yes | 4c | 11,428$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 12c | 11,325$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 23c | 11,153$2,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,509.74 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd28d…1fb7backed Yes | 2c | 11,094$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 1c | 11,056$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.95 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 13c | 10,547$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.85 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed No | 77c | 10,000$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,299.99 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…7c32backed Yes | 30c | 9,879$2,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 0c | 8,532$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…fa36backed Yes | 22c | 8,485$1,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…ffe1backed Yes | 2c | 8,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 15c | 8,224$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.02 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 13c | 7,471$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 23c | 7,390$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.76 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 26c | 7,227$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.73 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…5838backed Yes | 1c | 7,200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164a…7352backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 19c | 6,554$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.57 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…aa5bbacked Yes | 18c | 6,513$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…2a64backed Yes | 1c | 5,391$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 1c | 5,362$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 25c | 5,314$1,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,330.16 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 13c | 5,305$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.64 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…8387backed Yes | 20c | 4,919$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 20c | 4,918$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…734ebacked Yes | 2c | 4,887$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 17c | 4,868$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.69 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 18c | 4,756$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.76 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 1c | 4,400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…4feabacked Yes | 4c | 4,385$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 14c | 4,239$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…3b85backed Yes | 1c | 4,064$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 16c | 3,962$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.02 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 18c | 3,960$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.77 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe03…b130backed Yes | 3c | 3,860$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,797$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 3,498$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.99 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…42a0backed Yes | 1c | 3,393$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 1c | 3,346$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes | 19c | 3,252$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.17 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac1…154bbacked Yes | 19c | 3,000$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e1b…6932backed Yes | 1c | 2,970$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,969$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.51 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a1…5f52backed Yes | 15c | 2,950$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 13c | 2,823$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.83 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5655…623ebacked Yes | 17c | 2,662$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 2,625$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.22 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,481$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.17 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes | 29c | 2,454$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,438$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 22c | 2,335$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.54 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Yes | 10c | 2,306$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…62f5backed Yes | 10c | 2,275$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…b0fcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,208$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…7ab3backed Yes | 20c | 2,176$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 14c | 2,162$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.03 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 21c | 2,140$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d2…57b8backed Yes | 26c | 2,119$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…563abacked Yes | 12c | 2,107$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 16c | 2,049$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.91 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd94…88bcbacked Yes | 20c | 1,893$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d8…fb38backed No | 66c | 1,878$1,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.47 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…c4fabacked Yes | 40c | 1,859$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…97f1backed Yes | 13c | 1,838$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.7 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 13c | 1,815$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.79 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…d9f7backed Yes | 16c | 1,807$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 14c | 1,807$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.51 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,797$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.72 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 16c | 1,792$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 21c | 1,674$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.81 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 14c | 1,666$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ad…78d0backed Yes | 43c | 1,618$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d13…a018backed Yes | 16c | 1,530$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,523$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 13c | 1,506$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.43 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1f…320cbacked Yes | 23c | 1,500$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 25c | 1,500$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x276e…49a1backed Yes | 24c | 1,479$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 16c | 1,452$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…6161backed Yes | 39c | 1,445$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.24 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8922…f01dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,414$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,411$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779f…00f7backed Yes | 6c | 1,384$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…5ecebacked Yes | 17c | 1,340$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed Yes | 2c | 1,336$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 32c | 1,334$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.56 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…2983backed Yes | 22c | 1,333$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe67…06fcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,308$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9a…06bebacked Yes | 17c | 1,266$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 20c | 1,252$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22f…2702backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0487…3770backed Yes | 21c | 1,182$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?this page
- Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?Yes won
- Will CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens for the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?No won
- Will SPD, FDP, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will another coalition form the next German Government?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.