World Politics · resolved market
Will another coalition form the next German Government?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e9e4aa4480a3b1f4671ff8ae6f6f4c254f26056138180c61cc78a9231e9ad7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,214,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,053,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,214,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 120,439$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.43 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…2c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 108,982$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf53b…9c48backed Yes | 1c | 74,178$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…11f2backed Yes | 1c | 56,160$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 51,000$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…a3eabacked Yes | 0c | 41,963$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 31,356$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.77 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 2c | 29,256$683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.1 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 27,200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 1c | 25,677$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.02 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9056…df79backed Yes | 3c | 23,997$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 20,116$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.76 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes | 3c | 11,603$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28d…1fb7backed Yes | 6c | 10,912$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.88 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 1c | 10,495$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.44 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 0c | 10,285$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9a…06bebacked Yes | 1c | 9,450$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed Yes | 1c | 7,027$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa81e…b4e0backed Yes | 0c | 6,972$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bd…d5a2backed Yes | 2c | 5,882$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e445backed Yes | 5c | 5,335$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 0c | 5,138$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceac…aae9backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.85 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed Yes | 1c | 4,597$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 1c | 4,475$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 4,463$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.62 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 3c | 4,200$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 4,087$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,517$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…97f1backed Yes | 4c | 3,373$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.36 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 4c | 3,011$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,924$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes | 4c | 2,870$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.84 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…f95dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,755$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 5c | 2,749$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.08 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 2c | 2,536$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd450…fb53backed Yes | 4c | 2,452$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 4c | 2,406$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f2…710fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,239$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,204$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,837$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca9…e688backed Yes | 3c | 1,757$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 3c | 1,756$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ef…1935backed Yes | 3c | 1,734$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d8…3024backed Yes | 2c | 1,699$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 1c | 1,522$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ba…3b0dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,294$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,276$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…f3cfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 1,176$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed Yes | 4c | 1,121$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x337b…fb62backed Yes | 5c | 1,066$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,065$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…4f68backed Yes | 3c | 1,064$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5292…edf0backed Yes | 1c | 989$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d63…2cb9backed Yes | 4c | 983.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…caf0backed Yes | 5c | 956.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 836.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb425…366bbacked Yes | 4c | 836.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 4c | 785.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb06…3097backed Yes | 4c | 717.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e3…6a3dbacked Yes | 4c | 660.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb14…6c7ebacked Yes | 6c | 632.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed2…2f55backed Yes | 5c | 616.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b22…07b2backed Yes | 3c | 596.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa363…62f5backed Yes | 5c | 581.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9032…1292backed Yes | 5c | 536.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 4c | 530.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…fc55backed Yes | 4c | 526.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 513.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7613…5ecebacked Yes | 4c | 478.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…f70dbacked Yes | 5c | 441.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68bc…4bb1backed Yes | 6c | 407.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f49…9850backed Yes | 5c | 384$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 4c | 356.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 6c | 354.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…0b8fbacked Yes | 6c | 346.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3086…1982backed Yes | 7c | 337.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc930…9ed4backed Yes | 4c | 302.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b71…f6eabacked Yes | 5c | 301.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d6…d9f7backed Yes | 5c | 229.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…58e9backed Yes | 6c | 175.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8898…7c59backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another coalition form the next German Government?this page
- Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government?Yes won
- Will CDU/CSU, FDP, and Greens for the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and BSW form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and FDP form the next German Government?No won
- Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
- Will SPD, FDP, and Greens form the next German Government?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.