TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd352…4ad6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
218
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT5230.8%16 W · 36 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$813Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$812.59
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,561Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,560.81
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$989Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$988.54
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$559Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$559.25
Will Noel Thomas win the 2026 Galway West by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$165Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+100.7%+$166.44
Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$319.86
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,199.15
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$2,611Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,610.69
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,804Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$1,908.49
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$2,118Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$1,436.53
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.79
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election by more than 30%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+207.4%+$22.78
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$28,755Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+34.6%+$9,939.55
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$201.7
Will Michael McDowell win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Fergus Finlay win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$10,994Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+81.5%+$8,962.24
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,018Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+117.4%+$2,369.07
Will Andrónico Rodríguez win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$81.98
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$287.06
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,136Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,135.84
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$219
Will the Patriotic Electoral Bloc win the most seats in the 2025 Moldova parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$627Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$626.87
Will Sylvi Listhaug become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$900Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$900
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,591Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,590.61
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT3119.4%6 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-58.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Squid launch a token by October 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$300.08
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+346.8%+$1,136.5
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$999.94
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,075Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,074.65
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,543Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,543.36
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13,950Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+43.4%+$6,050
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$26,961Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$26,961.34
Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,938Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+73.6%+$2,162.02
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$5,973Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$5,973.03
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20,220Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20,220.03
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$7,700Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$7,699.98
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11,285Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$11,285.36
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$5,706Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$5,705.65
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$6,699Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$6,699.23
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18,895Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$18,895.26
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$35,928Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$35,928.45
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18,275Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$18,274.7
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11,667Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+81.9%+$9,550
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$500.17
Will Ethena win the USDH ticker?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,066Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,066.5
Will Native Markets win the USDH ticker?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,259Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,258.74
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$4,117Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST-100%-$4,117.49
Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$576Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$576.33
Zircuit airdrop by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,654Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+102.2%+$3,735.57
Pudgy Penguins airdrop by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$40.59
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid0%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$41,038Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$41,038.41
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$5,340Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,340
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$6,837Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$2,203.41
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,151.07
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13,838Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+58%+$8,019.3
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$40.11
Will Colombia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+62.4%+$139.79
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,023Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,023.17
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$5,180Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$2,220
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$661Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$208.81
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,782Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$1,217.97
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$6,597Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$1,903.15
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$6,820Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+46.6%+$3,180
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$280
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$6,459Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+54.8%+$3,541
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+36.9%+$457.03
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,967Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+55.5%+$1,648.19
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$4,900Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$5,100
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,749.9
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$3,707Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$5,118.7
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,600
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,750
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$750
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick43cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$11,840Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$3,636.39
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$3,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,199.97
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$1,405Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,405.16
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$5,900Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+154.2%+$9,099.93
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$3,053Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,053.49
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$316.63
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,585Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$414.99
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10,582Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10,581.75
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23,243Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$23,243.14
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$12,000
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$263.56
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18,797Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+150.4%+$28,276.67
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12,513Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$12,513.39
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$38,129Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$38,129.03
Will the UK recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$329.99
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$353.23
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,095Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,095.07
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,780Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$1,220
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12,727Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12,727
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+38.9%+$76.22
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11,878Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+84.8%+$10,068.38
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20,080Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.7%+$5,969.28
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$5,769Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$3,848.1
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$8,122Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$8,122.32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$68.43
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,287Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,287.17
Successful Ukrainian counterattack in Donbass?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$59.2
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$13,004Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$13,004.38
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$3,644Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,643.62
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$109.7
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$416Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$415.88
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,482Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,482.21
Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$252.88
All 16 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$8,178Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29%+$2,367.98
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+143.9%+$206.5
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$223.07
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$174
Will Trump visit the Western Wall by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,100
Kash Patel out by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$294.34
Will Eric Adams drop out?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$487.96
Will Trump’s approval rating be between 45.0% and 45.4% on September 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$330
Will Trump’s approval rating be ≥45.5% on September 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,500Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$1,499.99
TikTok sale announced before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$620Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$620
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$21,561Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+77.6%+$16,724.52
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,264Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+35.1%+$444.1
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 155-214backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$455Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2024, EST-100%-$454.56
Trump wins a solid blue state?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$1,832Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$1,832
All 16 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+78.6%+$38.46
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$3,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$2,999.96
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,077Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,077.27
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$24.77
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$484Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+108.3%+$524.12
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,550Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+40.8%+$1,450
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,342Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+85.2%+$1,142.93
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$5,770Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+38.6%+$2,230
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 November meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$17.48
Powell says "inflation" 15+ times in FOMC statement?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,449Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,448.98
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$180
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 July meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2024, EDT-100%-$189
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick26cpaid-83.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$4,923Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$4,194.03
Democratic sweep?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$8,807Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$8,807.27
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,240Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,240
Will Jason Miyares win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$2,120
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,049Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,048.67
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$2,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$2,179.57
Will a Democrat win Maryland US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$44.24
Will a Republican win Maryland US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$288.94
Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$4,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$4,200
Will a Republican win New Jersey US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$28
Will a candidate from another party win New Jersey US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST-100%-$15.23
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-26.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+31.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick8cpaid+601.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+78.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,400Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$3,600
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$274.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$650Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$650
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$7,600Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$2,400
All 2 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11,408Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+61.3%+$6,992
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$10,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$4,285.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$4,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,179.69
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.