Us Midterms · resolved market
Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1b184c4724ad7d832320e5189dd4eddffd53a936733cb4dbf018a8dde1b3703
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $684,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $626,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $684,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 175 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc64d…a1c9backed Yes | 33c | 47,368$15,771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,770.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 21c | 26,016$5,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,458.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd11…e918backed Yes | 27c | 25,900$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc200…3c75backed Yes | 19c | 22,988$4,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,425.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 33c | 20,000$6,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,600 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 21c | 20,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 29c | 18,054$5,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,198.95 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 71c | 14,041$10,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,007.01 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 67c | 11,700$7,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,861 | 18 | 88.9%16 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd909…fd75backed No | 72c | 11,637$8,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,261.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…85e9backed Yes | 0c | 11,050$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…8cdfbacked Yes | 28c | 10,000$2,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,766.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 27c | 9,106$2,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,441.96 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…a85ebacked Yes | 26c | 8,899$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 32c | 8,563$2,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,773.64 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…ded5backed Yes | 29c | 8,536$2,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,516.63 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 69c | 7,871$5,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,454.59 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 79c | 7,631$6,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 41c | 7,141$2,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,914.43 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed No | 73c | 7,134$5,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…817ebacked Yes | 35c | 7,075$2,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,472.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 33c | 6,737$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.06 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed Yes | 11c | 6,263$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 24c | 5,869$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.18 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 74c | 5,645$4,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,456.57 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 78c | 5,389$4,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.56 | 151 | 50.3%76 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 22c | 5,250$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160.69 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5431…47e1backed No | 71c | 5,249$3,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 29c | 5,172$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 23c | 4,951$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.83 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4949backed Yes | 22c | 4,160$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 23c | 4,070$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 31c | 4,048$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.8 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1171backed Yes | 23c | 3,274$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 3,100$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.47 | 168 | 33.3%56 W · 112 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 71c | 3,000$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…fe65backed No | 73c | 3,000$2,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8c…c7ecbacked Yes | 37c | 2,669$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Yes | 32c | 2,531$809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$809.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x708f…f236backed Yes | 29c | 2,500$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 23c | 2,280$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 72c | 2,237$1,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.09 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,203$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 23c | 2,195$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,689.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 77c | 2,195$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,689.91 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedaa…2f33backed Yes | 22c | 1,806$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fd…e030backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 79c | 1,421$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.68 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c4…55cfbacked Yes | 74c | 1,412$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.49 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0935…6502backed Yes | 5c | 1,391$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 75c | 1,370$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.42 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…5e8dbacked Yes | 33c | 1,300$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x926c…95cebacked Yes | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…e3b1backed Yes | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee1…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 1,210$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 16c | 1,195$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8628…27c2backed Yes | 26c | 1,144$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Yes | 11c | 1,036$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2daf…c1d4backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8e…1d33backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed Yes | 27c | 962.96$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…8468backed No | 20c | 918.56$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 78c | 907$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.54 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc79a…d9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 899$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f36…f6bebacked Yes | 23c | 856.91$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…ec73backed Yes | 19c | 789$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 68c | 784$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.26 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 25c | 740.51$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +49%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 21c | 666.99$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe998…c17fbacked Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes | 21c | 595.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…efe7backed Yes | 70c | 584.47$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.13 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Yes | 27c | 541.26$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.08 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6bd…76bebacked Yes | 46c | 540.9$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 504$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.68 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…18aebacked Yes | 5c | 471.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8504…ac64backed Yes | 33c | 454$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked Yes | 5c | 447.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 73c | 445$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa492…d2fdbacked Yes | 36c | 418.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e7…0a64backed Yes | 21c | 416.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b2ffbacked Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 25c | 405$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked No | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed No | 9c | 397.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb750…90bcbacked Yes | 26c | 385$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a24…b65ebacked No | 17c | 384.85$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd8…624bbacked Yes | 26c | 384.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 15c | 378.07$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…623abacked Yes | 22c | 377.27$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa063…7248backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 34c | 350$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…6808backed Yes | 21c | 347.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…e59dbacked Yes | 11c | 323.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed No | 77c | 308.7$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.83 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 79c | 308.33$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.72 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election?this page
- Will a Democrat win Michigan US Senate Election?Yes won
- Will a candidate from another party win US Michigan Senate Election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.