TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa672…f083

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
89
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Weather, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 58 out of 100; worst NFL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST1833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$14.02
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$969Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+122.2%+$1,183.96
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15,053Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+49.5%+$7,447.04
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$251.98
Over $120M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$4,939Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$4,938.64
Over $180M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$362Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$362.26
Over $200M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,458Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,457.58
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$6,932Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+38.8%+$2,687.5
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$8,545Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+28.7%+$2,454.77
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,247Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$1,247.36
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,335Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$2,334.84
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20,904Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20,904.17
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$407.67
Over $600M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$1,501Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$1,501.25
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18,398Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$18,397.75
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$23,668Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+102.9%+$24,354.17
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$6,057Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+32.6%+$1,973.47
LayerZero airdrop by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$6,359Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$6,358.54
All 18 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 19, 2025, EST1553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,860Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+31.6%+$587.36
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$10,560Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+75.2%+$7,940
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$6,417Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$6,417.18
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$9,763Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+48.4%+$4,728.87
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,850Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$3,150
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$5,776Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,776.24
US military action against Iran by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,259
Trump releases JFK files by Tuesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$121
Will Trump issue 25-29 executive orders on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,426Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+106.1%+$2,574.16
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$39,106Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+31.2%+$12,193.98
Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+28.4%+$74.89
Will Trump nominate RFK Jr. for HHS Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$6,894Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$6,894.44
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$1,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$1,749.98
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13,398Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+244.8%+$32,802.72
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, D Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$3,405Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$3,404.83
All 15 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+99.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$154.29
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$2,556Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$2,556
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,081Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,080.5
Will Republicans have 55 seats in Senate after election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+35.7%+$79.03
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+376.2%+$237
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25,735Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST+36%+$9,265
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$9,640Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST+34.9%+$3,360
Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$123
Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$123
Senate control after 2024 election?backed Democrats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$6,379Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2024, EST-100%-$6,378.79
Will a Republican win Wisconsin US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$2,043Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+230.8%+$4,714.5
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,785Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+84.9%+$1,515
Will a Republican win Michigan US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+1,056.4%+$363.48
Trump margin of victory in New Hampshire Primary >15%backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$705Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2024, EST+142.2%+$1,002
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2025, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+665.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$7,104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+125.8%+$8,939.68
Will Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15,293Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,292.55
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$365.7
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$16,296Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$16,296
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$1,210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,209.8
Georgescu banned from Romania election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,139.99
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$31,385Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$12,194.7
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25,732Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+51.6%+$13,267.99
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$10,650Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10,650
Will Edmundo González win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+7,042.9%+$1,876.47
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2024, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+242.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Weather — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+112.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick58cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$798Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+28.2%+$225.21
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 17 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$12.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-1.5)backed UMBC Retrievers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,880Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,879.99
March Madness: UConn vs. Alabamabacked Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$44.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Drake drops new track by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2024, EDT+316.7%+$63.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$2,198Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+75.4%+$1,657.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 30, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Atlanta Braves make the Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,121Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2024, EDT+51.2%+$574
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Ohio Statebacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,890Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$1,359.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+37%+$73.44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Katie Ledecky (USA) win Gold in Women's 800m Freestyle?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$810Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$810.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$307.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$18,825Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18,824.99
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.