Us Midterms · resolved market
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Wednesday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4762332789c2f3e2a82eb7102dcb690210f931b8301a42c5a6ba5fc9f5567282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $267,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $279,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $267,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 3c | 76,722$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.21 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 1c | 37,000$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 67c | 35,506$23,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,942.26 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 7c | 27,032$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,190.35 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…cf53backed Yes | 6c | 4,689$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,388 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,458.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fa…0a56backed No | 9c | 4,431$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 3,987$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed Yes | 18c | 3,395$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,773.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 22c | 3,381$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,647.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…0800backed Yes | 3c | 2,628$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,554.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 13cpaid | +581.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 5c | 2,608$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,765$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.94 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 5c | 1,739$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +246.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 5c | 1,739$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 3c | 1,400$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.7 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 73c | 1,397$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.03 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa672…f083backed No | 78c | 1,385$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +99.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 11c | 1,179$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.55per pick | 11cpaid | +424.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 11c | 1,046$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 958.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 30c | 927.04$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 800.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.31 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…2e60backed Yes | 18c | 738.13$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +478.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 30c | 672.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 66c | 534$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.94 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7f…4326backed Yes | 4c | 409.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,602.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes | 30c | 326.64$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +62%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed No | 78c | 310$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7e…de56backed Yes | 7c | 295.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,376%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 76c | 220$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.24 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 8c | 174.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.21 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 2cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…2436backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +324.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 19c | 129.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.79 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0f…2433backed No | 79c | 39.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Wednesday?this page
- Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Friday?Yes won
- Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by July 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.