TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2cde…5b98

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
653
Categories scored
36
Categories below 50
14

Best Category: NFL, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 65 out of 100; worst Earnings at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST11121.6%24 W · 87 L+11.4wins+0.10per pick11cpaid+179.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 111 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+232.2%+$50.53
Will Elon and DOGE cut 100-150k employees in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$14.57
Will Trump cut long term capital gains tax in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+525%+$99.25
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+2,400%+$1,680
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+376.2%+$526.14
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11.42
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$210.03
Will anyone vote "No" to releasing the Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Nancy Pelosi announce her retirement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$159.96
Will Prince Andrew be named in the Epstein survivors' list?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+1,011.1%+$198.65
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Argentina in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+1,900%+$292.87
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+1,150%+$1,610
Will Mike Bloomberg endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.55
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$146.74
Will Trump say "AUKUS" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.97
Will Trump say "Pacific" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.48
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.49
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.96
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.92
Trump strikes another drug boat by Oct 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.98
Showing 25 of 111 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST7313.7%10 W · 63 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+81.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 73 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 49-50°F on December 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on December 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 47-48°F on December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$19.98
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on December 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 41-42°F on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$19.95
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 39-40°F on December 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 47-48°F on November 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+1,011.1%+$202.02
Will the highest temperature in London be between 51-52°F on November 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 49-50°F on November 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on November 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$19.98
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on November 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$18.27
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on November 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+733.3%+$146.08
Will the highest temperature in London be between 63-64°F on October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.19
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 55-56°F on October 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.84
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.41
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.45
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on October 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT+733.3%+$127.6
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.41
Will the highest temperature in London be between 72-73°F on September 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will the highest temperature in London be between 69-70°F on August 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.44
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 87-88°F on August 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.46
Megaquake before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.8
Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on July 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.96
Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on July 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.93
Showing 25 of 73 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT7225%18 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+262.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
World Politics — the 72 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$59.15
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$200.44
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$319.88
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$195.25
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$132.9
Will Johannes Kaiser win between 13% and 16% of votes in the first round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$120
Cho Tae-yong in jail by November 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$159.9
Will turnout be between 78% and 81% in the Netherlands Parliamentary Election 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+792.9%+$335.24
Will PVV win 26 or fewer seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST+1,150%+$163.43
Will the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the third most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$199.82
Will the Party for Freedom win the second most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$199.98
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.92
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.72
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+488.2%+$682.26
Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.21
Will the Red Bloc win by 4–7 seats?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.85
Will the Progress Party (FrP) win 22% or more of vote in Norwegian election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next Prime Minister of France?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$216.81
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.74
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT+525%+$420
Will the next government of Suriname be NDP/NPS/ABOP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.35
Yoon arrested by July 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+1,011.1%+$1,010.07
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+9,900%+$2,504.86
Showing 25 of 72 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST619.8%6 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
O/U 0.5 Roundsbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+1,900%+$1,520
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$80
UFC 322: Brady vs. Morales (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Brady · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$159.84
Will the fight be won by submission?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+1,900%+$1,520
O/U 1.5 Roundsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$79.98
UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. Bryczekbacked Tavares · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.8
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Fakhretdinovbacked Gustafsson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
UFC Fight Night: Will Zhang win by KO/TKO/DQ?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.84
UFC Fight Night: Will Walker win by KO/TKO/DQ?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.86
UFC Fight Night: Mingyang and Sterling backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
UFC Fight Night: Walker and Sumudaerjibacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.99
UFC Fight Night: Pereira vs. Daukausbacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.76
UFC Fight Night: Long vs. Youbacked You · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$339.8
UFC Fight Night: Satybaldiev vs. Nurgozhaybacked Nurgozhay · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
UFC: Holmes vs. Rowstonbacked Holmes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.92
UFC 319: Murphy vs. Pico backed Pico · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
UFC 319: Elliott vs. Asakurabacked Asakura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.84
UFC 319: Silva vs. Barbosa backed Barbosa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
UFC Fight Night: Will Hernandez win by submission?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.96
UFC Fight Night: Will Hernandez win by KO/TKO/DQ?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2025, EDT+809.1%+$566.04
UFC Fight Night: Rębecki vs. Duncan backed Rębecki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
UFC Fight Night: Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Mitchell · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$1,228.08
UFC Fight Night: Salikhov vs. Lealbacked Leal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
UFC Fight Night: Grant vs. Blackshearbacked Blackshear · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Riccibacked Ribas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST5127.5%14 W · 37 L+7.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+151%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Middle East — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces in Gaza in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+488.2%+$682.24
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+899.2%+$1,106.9
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$129.84
Will Belgium recognize Palestine in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+488.2%+$151.38
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$159.94
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$144Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$144.16
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Princess" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Saudi Investment Forum on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Two Weeks" first during Saudi PM events on November 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$80
US x Saudi security agreement by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$159.84
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$159.8
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$159.84
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$159.84
Will Israel strike Gaza on October 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+607.1%+$93.03
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$156.88
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Egypt summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.98
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.23
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.92
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.88
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$279.52
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+733.3%+$1,026.08
Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more than 40 minutes long?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.88
Israel strike on Yemen by September 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+557.9%+$293.78
Houthi strike on Israel by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.92
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST3125.8%8 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+104%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+1,900%+$1,520
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$35.85
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+809.1%+$1,618.02
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+355.3%+$37.77
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$115.11
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$159.76
Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Will Squid Game be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$159.88
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #2 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$79.99
Will Tyler Robinson rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$159.84
Will Kendrick Lamar rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will d4vd rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$159.94
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek V3.1 Chat win the NOF1.ai competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$199.98
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.84
Will anyone say "M5" during Apple launch event on September 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.98
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.8
Will GPT-5 be released by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$705.64
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$614.04
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+809.1%+$808.12
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$466.2
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+187.4%+$148.66
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$72.97
ChatGPT o3 released today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.98
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST283.6%1 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Braze Inc (BRZE) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$19.89
Will Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Bath & Body Works (BBWI) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Lowe's Companies (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$19.98
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$19.98
Will Femasys (FEMY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Newsmax (NMAX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will Disney say "DraftKings" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$79.98
Will Getty Images Holdings (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will eToro Group (ETOR) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Wendy’s (WEN) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will USA Rare Earth (USAR) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will DraftKings (DKNG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Celsius Holdings (CELH) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$19.91
Will Williams Companies (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Meta Platforms (META) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.98
Will MGM Resorts International (MGM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Verizon Communications (VZ) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.94
Will Penske Automotive Group (PAG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.92
Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.92
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will AT&T (T) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.84
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST2623.1%6 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+179.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$90.92
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST-100%-$159.96
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$159.96
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$159.98
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+870.9%+$1,218.13
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.86
Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+1,786.8%+$302.53
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from September 23 to September 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.83
Will SBF tweet again by Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.88
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 19, 2025, EDT+557.9%+$780.16
Will Elon tweet between 450 and 479 times August 29–September 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.72
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+733.3%+$1,466.08
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times June 27–July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$239.76
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$239.87
Will Elon tweet 170-179 times April 4 - 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.8
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 21-28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$201.37
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.83
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.84
Will Elon tweet less than 450 times March 7-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT+1,566.7%+$1,566.04
Will Ye tweet again by next Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$99.96
Will Elon tweet 850-874 times Feb 7-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2025, EST-100%-$16.02
Will POTUS tweet 11-13 times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST-100%-$43.33
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+1,150%+$1,482.84
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$18.75
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2528%7 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick11cpaid+190.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+371.7%+$120.39
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+809.1%+$451.43
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$159.8
Will Trump and Zelenskyy shake hands for between 2 and 4 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+809.1%+$251.36
Will Trump say "Jew" or "Muslim" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Trump meet with Lula da Silva in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.98
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.92
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during Zelensky events on August 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.91
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or UAE?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.82
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.14
Trump x Putin talk before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+809.1%+$1,456.04
Nothing Ever Happens backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.3
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+3,174%+$762.15
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100.01
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.73
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$488.48
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.96
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$99.96
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+354.5%+$354.12
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$159.89
Will Donald Trump say "Ukraine" 10+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$15.53
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" 5+ times during his presser with Zelenskyy on Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 25 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Sarah's Oil" score at least 80 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$42.84
Will "The Strangers: Chapter 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 5.75m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.8
Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $22m and $25m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.91
Will "The Bad Guys 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $19m and $22m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.8
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $17m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.6
Will "Thunderbolts" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 60?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$58.22
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' gross between $370-385m by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+562.3%+$448.27
Will "A Minecraft Movie" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 30 and 40?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.7
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$159.96
Will "I'm Not a Robot" win Best Action Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will "The Only Girl in the Orchestra" win Best Documentary Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$159.88
Will "Conclave" win Best Film Editing at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will "In the Shadow of the Cypress" win Best Animated Short Film at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will "The Wild Robot" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will "Flow" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will "Conclave" win Best Cast in a Motion Picture at the 2025 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$79.98
Will "Only Murders in the Building" win Best Cast in a Comedy Series at the 2025 SAG Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$45.34
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST-100%-$99.88
Will 'Nosferatu' win Best Cinematography in the 2025 Critics' Choice Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will 'Sing Sing' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will 'A Real Pain' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will Angelina Jolie win the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Movie - Drama?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 23 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST205%1 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid+150%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.96
Will Powell say "Unchanged" during December press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$39.97
Will one person dissent the October Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Powell say "Pandemic" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.49
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.11
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.92
Will Powell say "Step/Stepping Down" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+4,900%+$754.13
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.86
Will the ECB announce no change at the July meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$131.58
Will Powell say "Tariff" 15+ times during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.48
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during Princeton Commencement on May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.97
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.48
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.97
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.25
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during January press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.75
Will Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.75
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$18.75
All 20 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1844.4%8 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.32per pick12cpaid+985.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Phantom daily builder revenue hit $300k in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+1,900%+$1,330
Will Zama launch a token in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.37
Rainbow FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+400%+$560
Will Opensea launch a token by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$139.84
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $600M and $800M?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+1,566.7%+$2,506.04
Over $100M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$159.86
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$199.92
Will Hyperliquid launch stocks perps in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.68
Will Pump.fun launch a token by June 30? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+733.3%+$133.3
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Will Kanye launch a coin in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$736.16
OpenSea airdrop before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+9,900%+$2,695.7
Will another coin be the next coin listed on Robinhood?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.72
Will $PENGU be the next coin listed on Robinhood?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.72
Will Kanye meet with Ansem by next Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$99.96
Will Berachain launch a token in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+1,761%+$1,765.24
Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$177.28
$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+1,860.8%+$266.41
All 18 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT175.9%1 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid+194.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 20 minutes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Taylor Swift “Opalite” 195M Spotify Streams on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Diddy be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.92
Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.89
Will Vietnam win Intervision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.98
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce engaged in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 10-15m views on day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT+4,900%+$616.27
Will Taylor Swift say "Engaged" or "Engagement" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.5
Will Latvia qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.88
Will Denmark qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Belgium qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.64
Will Iceland qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.84
Will 'Cowboy Carter' win Album of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$149.82
Will 'Espresso' win Record of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Will 'Not Like Us' win Record of the Year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$74.99
Will "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" by Shaboozey win Best Country Song?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$75
Will "The Architect" by Kacey Musgraves win Best Country Song?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$75
All 17 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT156.7%1 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.25-3.50 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+566.7%+$792.2
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.50-3.75 in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$69.99
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.84
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$98.39
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.50-4.75 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be 4.2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.16
Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% or less in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$34.5
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will U.S. GDP growth be between 0% and -1% in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.88
Will annual inflation increase by 2.5% in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 15 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2025, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+5.3wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+630%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
NFL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2025, EDT+629.9%+$109.36
Will the Browns draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.29
Will the Raiders draft Shedeur Sanders in the 2025 NFL Draft?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2025, EDT+5,163.2%+$573.61
Will the Titans draft a Quarterback?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+1,860.8%+$205.65
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,620Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+85.6%+$2,242.01
Will Patrick Mahomes win Super Bowl LIX MVP?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+900%+$900
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 120 and 130 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+809.1%+$211.06
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,515Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+70.8%+$1,780.17
Will Xavier Worthy score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will DeVonta Smith score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Jalen Hurts score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will A.J. Brown score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$23.8
Will Josh Allen win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$11.72
Will Jayden Daniels record the most passing yards on Championship Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST-100%-$75
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2025, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick9cpaid+246.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York City Mayor election have the largest Democratic margin of victory?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST+412.8%+$388.77
Will Ted Cruz vote "Yea" on an Epstein disclosure bill in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+733.3%+$995.28
Will anyone say "Thousand" or "Million" or "Billion" 15+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT+1,328.6%+$144.05
Will Kathy Hochul endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.8
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$79.99
Elise Stefanik confirmed as UN ambassador?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.98
Will Bill Cassidy vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$32.87
Will Susan Collins vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$149.94
All 8 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2025, EDT825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+98.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Aug 30, 2025, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick8cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Aug 10, 2025, EDT520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+80.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+281.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $106K on July 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2025, EDT+663.4%+$1,060.18
Bitcoin all time high by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$141.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+60.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USA win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$159.84
Will Canada win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$80
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.84
Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea win the 2025 UEFA Conference League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will The MongolZ win FISSURE Playground 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$139.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$179.84
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.