Middle East · resolved market
Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more than 40 minutes long?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbace36f88d920c2816fd59547e6ae0364861ec2bd126c02b06ce1b527032a416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,408
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,408 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 38c | 1,269$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.36 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 13c | 1,076$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 79c | 713.43$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.1 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 523.7$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.32 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 47c | 429.54$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.89 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 63c | 338.77$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.32 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c94…31bfbacked Yes | 35c | 283.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 63c | 230$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.5 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 36c | 170.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.91 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 36c | 169$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.37 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked Yes | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 66c | 147.82$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9287…ef46backed No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 65c | 131.43$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 19c | 130.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 66c | 111.36$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 102.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 63c | 100.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…99cfbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…01febacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +107.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 43c | 92.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 39c | 90.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked No | 59c | 88.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 30c | 65.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…23b0backed Yes | 39c | 51.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…d65abacked No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…72c0backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbf…f6b2backed Yes | 55c | 43.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed Yes | 44c | 38.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 64c | 35.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c0…2ba7backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 70c | 17.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netanyahu's UN speech be more than 40 minutes long?this page
- Will Netanyahu's UN speech be be between 15-20 minutes long?No won
- Will Netanyahu's UN speech be be between 20-25 minutes long?No won
- Will Netanyahu's UN speech be be between 25-30 minutes long?No won
- Will Netanyahu's UN speech be be between 30-35 minutes long?No won
- Will Netanyahu's UN speech be be between 35-40 minutes long?No won
- Will Netanyahu's UN speech be less than 15 minutes long?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.