TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xdd1b…75d8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
357
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT8643%37 W · 49 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$58.9
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$250
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+66%+$726.49
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$1,100
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$275
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$48
Will the Government shutdown end by November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$49.5
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Government shutdown end October 19-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.92
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 10+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$68
Will Trump say "Mineral" or "Earth" 2+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+34.2%+$16.98
Will the Government shutdown end October 15-18backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+26.5%+$66.35
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+400%+$84
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+48.8%+$24.41
Will Trump say TikTok during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.3
Will Trump say Biden 3+ times during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$10
Will Trump say Qatar during Netanyahu events on September 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+28.8%+$73.27
Trump approval Up or Down this week?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$210Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT+36.7%+$77.02
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with India in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$387.51
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT7640.8%31 W · 45 L+7.4wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+2.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Middle East — the 76 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$146Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+81.1%+$118.48
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$530Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+69.6%+$368.73
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.9
Will Hegseth or Cooper say "Kurd" or "Kurdish" during press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+809.1%+$404.55
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will the US next strike Iran on March 15, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.39
Will the US next strike Iran on March 22, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$25.2
Will the US next strike Iran on March 23, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$26.9
Will the US next strike Iran on March 24, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$25.2
Will the US next strike Iran on March 25, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$24
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+566.7%+$135.99
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$31.4
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$27.2
Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$25.2
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$30.31
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+429.1%+$209.63
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Showing 25 of 76 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2025, EDT7653.9%41 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 76 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+487.3%+$72.12
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+60.2%+$72.26
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+76.9%+$30.77
Clippers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+32%+$15.99
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$9
Pacers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Celtics vs. Magicbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2025, EDT+25%+$24
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+56.1%+$78.56
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$636Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$635.99
Clippers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT+65.5%+$130.92
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$42
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$132.56
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Bucks vs. Pelicansbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$21
Pacers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.3
Kings vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Timberwolves vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Pistons vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Pelicans vs. Clippersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$23.3
Jazz vs. Rocketsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Hornets vs. Pelicansbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Showing 25 of 76 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST3727%10 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.8
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.09
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$110
Will Donald Trump say "Thousand," "Million," or "Billion" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$48
Will Donald Trump say "Donbas" or "Crimea" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+39.6%+$19.44
Will Donald Trump say "Mar-a-Lago" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+81.8%+$40.5
Will Donald Trump say "eighth war" or "eight wars" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+75.4%+$15.09
Will Donald Trump say "Putin" at least once during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Ukrainian" 10+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.5
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+38.6%+$77.92
Will Trump say "Trillion" or "Million" or "Billion" 8+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+60.7%+$124.23
Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Nine Wars" during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+37.3%+$37.26
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$175
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$112
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$61.5
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.2
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.99
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.99
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,093Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+112.6%+$1,230.98
Will Mikey Madison win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+211.4%+$148.63
Will Demi Moore win Best Actress at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Cinematography at the 2025 Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+26.6%+$13.29
Will 'Wicked' gross between $125-135m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$70.4
Will 'Wicked' gross between $105-115m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST+944.2%+$235.1
Will 'Wicked' gross less than $95m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$149.5
Will 'Wicked' gross between $115-125m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$89.25
Will 'Wicked' gross between $95-105m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$110
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $135m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2024, EST-100%-$100
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$25
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST110%0 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate James B. Bullard as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$61
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
'No change' or '25 bps cut' favored for Fed decision in January on December 10?backed 25 bps cut · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$22
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$55
Will Powell say "Renovation" during July Press Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.3
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.17
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 27, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nirav Shah be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" during NYC rally?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Bernie or Mamdani say "Trump" 10+ times during NYC rally?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$65
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+600%+$120
Will 50 senators vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 1-2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$314.42
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$50
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$802Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST+41.9%+$336.42
Matt Gaetz confirmed as Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$257
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2025, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-53.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz vs. Sinner backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$24.02
Will Amanda Anisimova win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Novak Djokovic win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Djokovic backed Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Wimbledon: Sabalenka vs. Anisimova (W) backed Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Wimbledon: Norrie vs. Alcaraz backed Norrie · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Wimbledon: Shelton vs. Sonego backed Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$29.87
Wimbledon: De Minaur vs. Djokovic backed De Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Wimbledon: Cilic vs. Cobolli backed Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2025, EDT+39.9%+$43.84
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 15, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+149.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+149.4%+$119.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 PGA Tour Player of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+100%+$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Billie Eilish perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$23
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Melania say "Empower" or "Empowering" during statement on April 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Nov 19, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.