World Politics · resolved market
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,863,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,877,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,863,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 10,849 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f5a…23e7backed Yes | 44c | 1,944,824$857,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857,043.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…3572backed Yes | 44c | 967,603$424,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424,596.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a1…1149backed Yes | 58c | 844,051$486,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486,574.07 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +1,419.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 46c | 578,290$268,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309,607.26 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Yes | 77c | 432,118$330,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330,673.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9708…925bbacked No | 35c | 369,708$129,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239,768.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a9…9265backed Yes | 71c | 334,827$236,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236,053.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 46c | 321,481$148,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173,286.99 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Yes | 66c | 309,195$203,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203,471.28 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc296…c666backed No | 20c | 300,010$59,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240,595.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +207.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…aa0dbacked Yes | 73c | 294,018$213,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213,889.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 62c | 262,874$162,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100,038.74 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b9…95fabacked Yes | 66c | 229,315$151,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151,332.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 71c | 211,449$150,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150,659.4 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed No | 34c | 197,138$66,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130,584.21 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 75c | 182,926$137,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137,605.44 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked No | 44c | 170,125$75,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,521.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 70c | 168,621$118,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118,479.08 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e44…e83fbacked Yes | 60c | 164,789$98,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98,165.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ec…0f94backed Yes | 55c | 163,094$89,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,014.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 52c | 156,060$81,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81,581.29 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 47c | 155,295$73,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,638.37 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5e…7f28backed Yes | 67c | 149,506$100,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100,342.04 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7811…3b47backed No | 34c | 147,276$50,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97,236.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe627…ab1bbacked Yes | 5c | 141,106$6,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,349.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…7d89backed Yes | 62c | 129,909$80,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80,025 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce92…6e4bbacked No | 30c | 128,681$38,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89,709.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91eb…da31backed Yes | 10c | 122,645$12,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,875.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed Yes | 73c | 114,816$83,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83,290.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed No | 61c | 113,399$69,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,141.83 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…5a37backed Yes | 78c | 109,337$85,509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85,508.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 49c | 108,596$53,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55,174.61 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 8c | 107,871$8,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,355.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…d7bdbacked Yes | 61c | 107,373$65,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,856.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 42c | 105,117$44,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,791.27 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed No | 29c | 104,987$30,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74,456.88 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.19per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…a513backed Yes | 16c | 104,319$16,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,972.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 12c | 102,607$12,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,021.06 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9749…d3a6backed Yes | 56c | 102,443$57,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,363.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e49ebacked Yes | 73c | 102,150$74,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74,627.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 16c | 100,498$16,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,534.87 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…3d04backed Yes | 2c | 100,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…9217backed Yes | 71c | 98,652$69,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69,900.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1300…7ef4backed Yes | 56c | 95,712$53,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,281.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked No | 25c | 94,998$23,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71,158.14 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7631…564ebacked Yes | 78c | 94,941$73,758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73,757.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 27c | 94,526$25,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69,429.52 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…9648backed Yes | 28c | 91,637$25,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,745.55 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd32…33c4backed Yes | 60c | 90,752$54,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,821.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…5c20backed Yes | 58c | 88,652$50,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,988.09 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c4…160ebacked Yes | 57c | 86,923$49,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,865.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11bf…e01abacked Yes | 34c | 84,114$28,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,735.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…baa7backed Yes | 65c | 83,950$54,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,723.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…83c9backed No | 44c | 83,525$36,645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,879.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed No | 21c | 83,476$17,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,147.42 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 64c | 83,279$53,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,490.73 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…487dbacked Yes | 0c | 82,420$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.03 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked Yes | 3c | 80,786$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.1 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Yes | 23c | 79,296$17,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,983.11 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5712…c795backed Yes | 6c | 79,269$4,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,998.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…2d56backed Yes | 76c | 79,085$60,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60,027.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…9766backed No | 63c | 77,755$48,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,996.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 77,443$5,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,150.09 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 9c | 76,807$6,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,747.33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…0843backed Yes | 64c | 76,304$49,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,024.01 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 74c | 76,054$56,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56,500 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…2f2fbacked Yes | 66c | 75,963$50,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,000 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…78d4backed Yes | 17c | 75,585$13,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,226.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 75c | 72,112$54,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,070.94 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cea…4eccbacked Yes | 63c | 71,747$45,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,025.59 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…257abacked Yes | 69c | 70,007$48,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,420.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 68c | 69,870$47,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,450.88 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 62c | 69,675$43,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,196.36 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 62c | 68,868$43,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,018.39 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed Yes | 71c | 68,241$48,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,542.92 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked No | 70c | 65,415$46,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,368.86 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a30…906ebacked Yes | 12c | 64,482$8,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,053 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…21d8backed No | 30c | 63,684$19,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,358.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 41c | 63,593$25,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,797.9 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3417…1ec9backed Yes | 37c | 63,398$23,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,582.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a7…9ac3backed No | 19c | 62,415$11,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,627.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 19cpaid | +295.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…3ce4backed Yes | 66c | 62,330$40,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,984.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd1…9249backed Yes | 69c | 62,110$42,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,912.61 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…c89abacked Yes | 5c | 61,274$3,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,052.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0564…ce95backed No | 24c | 60,688$14,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,919.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 21cpaid | +160.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…1f87backed Yes | 74c | 59,614$44,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,392.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa4…9350backed Yes | 9c | 58,253$5,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 64c | 57,694$37,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,017.16 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 62c | 57,517$35,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,612.87 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e6…f3a4backed Yes | 64c | 57,378$36,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,835.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ce85backed Yes | 78c | 57,307$44,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,769.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6142…dc66backed Yes | 67c | 57,138$38,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,557.24 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed No | 44c | 56,642$24,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,895.65 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed No | 31c | 56,074$17,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,698.38 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 43c | 55,865$23,783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,081.99 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9452backed No | 23c | 54,987$12,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,259.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…1c4ebacked Yes | 11c | 54,017$5,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7678…e5f0backed Yes | 54c | 52,942$28,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,628.71 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40bc…79dbbacked No | 27c | 52,592$14,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,420.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 17cpaid | +190.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed Yes | 77c | 51,939$39,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39,790.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?this page
- Will Adrian Zandberg be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Artur Bartoszewicz be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Joanna Senyszyn be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?Yes won
- Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Maciej Maciak be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Magdalena Biejat be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Marek Woch be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Szymon Hołownia be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.