TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,736,000
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,986,337

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,736,000 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,969 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x629b…995abacked Yes42c577,707$243,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334,620.843243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0bb7…2ec3backed No6c458,750$25,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,726.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+58.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes58c292,123$170,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121,545.441233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9708…925bbacked Yes36c281,320$100,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180,876.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+88.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes27c266,332$72,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193,791.279334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81f9…7dd4backed Yes35c247,617$85,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161,898.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+188.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc060…8956backed Yes63c242,964$153,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,059.921735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes69c234,715$161,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,075.2114033.6%47 W · 93 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes46c231,309$105,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,329.058047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No1c228,543$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.783842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2f0…90fabacked Yes36c206,704$74,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132,060.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+176.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48cd…ab2ebacked Yes27c176,736$48,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128,721.72450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+130.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8cd8…773bbacked No1c168,129$2,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,077.06650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+201.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d60…03d8backed Yes24c163,528$39,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124,055.7910122.8%23 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-52.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5666…ef7bbacked Yes23c162,008$36,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125,150.422100%2 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+684.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc816…1ea4backed Yes28c156,277$43,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,568.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes38c148,326$56,549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,777.368640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x779a…6bc0backed Yes15c146,227$22,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123,984.46728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d86…0e96backed Yes43c141,714$60,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,283.07425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No66c139,521$92,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,111.4615230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x56e9…b34cbacked Yes36c138,957$49,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89,101.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+39.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6091…972bbacked No65c133,853$87,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,180.221957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x238c…5c20backed Yes30c131,696$39,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92,126.36933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed Yes37c129,577$48,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,044.856434.4%22 W · 42 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+36.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6b9…95fabacked Yes36c127,205$45,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,832.321040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4040…e8abbacked Yes18c125,493$22,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102,611.95540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick11cpaid+127.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x592a…4d2cbacked Yes36c125,334$44,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80,445.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+39.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8488…ce1dbacked No1c124,489$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes50c123,545$62,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,365.923444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No52c117,746$61,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61,763.3412345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6441…139ebacked Yes23c114,610$26,558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88,051.861650%8 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+38%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes41c113,437$46,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66,460.611247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes30c110,452$32,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,761.9318530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33dd…cd2abacked Yes33c108,989$36,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,853.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+201.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc28e…99b5backed Yes32c108,175$34,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,984.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+97.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1300…7ef4backed Yes21c106,887$22,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,838.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+71.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc851…cd2abacked Yes29c105,812$30,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,364.123528.6%10 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed Yes32c103,376$32,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,646.663348.5%16 W · 17 L+6.3wins+0.19per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x335a…430abacked Yes78c102,922$80,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,921.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes36c101,856$36,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,258.098932.6%29 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Yes47c101,160$47,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,720.465139.2%20 W · 31 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes23c101,011$22,945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,065.7410127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x566c…1e9abacked No0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-72.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e5c…aa0dbacked Yes43c100,000$43,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,905.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed Yes74c95,718$70,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,321.781442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0be…3197backed Yes39c93,473$36,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,713.551040%4 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f5a…23e7backed No66c90,282$59,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59,586.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-43.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes37c82,953$30,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,531.383246.9%15 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-15.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes28c82,123$23,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,824.335925.4%15 W · 44 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…0843backed Yes41c80,951$33,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47,407.791921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f75…0ac6backed Yes21c76,657$15,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,906.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes23c76,635$17,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,806.516149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x47b1…1306backed Yes37c75,990$27,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,156.5560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed No57c74,663$42,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,305.533537.1%13 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-39.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xab08…3572backed Yes69c73,735$50,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,855.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e78…ea77backed Yes30c71,893$21,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,315.224839.6%19 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed Yes55c70,000$38,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,696.533525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes35c67,391$23,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,061.963138.7%12 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes17c66,319$11,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54,926.72240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+60.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0aad…db06backed Yes36c66,265$24,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,189.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked No77c66,233$50,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,993.68922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.9wins-0.43per pick66cpaid-54.2%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5b57…4371backed Yes29c65,284$18,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,472.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+247.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes43c63,711$27,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,453.64055%22 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes20c62,500$12,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,110.63135.5%11 W · 20 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x06e0…7c68backed No2c62,496$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked Yes19c61,130$11,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,676.591020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe15b…620bbacked Yes21c60,708$12,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,003.7475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.40per pick35cpaid+139.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf371…9812backed Yes31c59,251$18,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,049.893619.4%7 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-46.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes46c57,673$26,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,989.242955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca3…5aa6backed Yes21c57,665$12,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,575.7425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed No29c55,154$15,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,839.771952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked No52c54,964$28,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,807.832050%10 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b7f…99a1backed Yes23c54,951$12,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,317.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid+45%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1475…858bbacked Yes23c54,713$12,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,084.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+333.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e7f…7747backed Yes27c53,842$14,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,165.94650%3 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+119.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked Yes41c53,540$22,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,503.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+155.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x630e…2f2fbacked Yes37c53,475$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,474.961338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4aba…1a66backed No4c53,325$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes37c51,045$18,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,262.933100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+206.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x738b…83c9backed Yes45c50,529$22,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,869.322100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+125.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc5a…cfc8backed Yes23c50,341$11,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,961.36825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34ac…286dbacked Yes36c49,488$18,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,470.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…7a6fbacked Yes30c49,069$14,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,190.262100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+198.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33c1…9648backed Yes22c48,082$10,743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,339.151827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed No66c46,275$30,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,563.838555.3%47 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No7c45,974$3,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,202.56883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Yes34c45,832$15,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,091.671030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ee0…589bbacked Yes16c45,328$7,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,075.36425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes48c44,532$21,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,241.72740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+23.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd104…37c7backed Yes60c44,118$26,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,600.02560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f94…380ebacked Yes36c44,000$15,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,160450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes57c43,840$24,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,987.6524736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4817…6bdbbacked Yes40c43,588$17,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,173.981070%7 W · 3 L+3.5wins+0.35per pick35cpaid+110%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6e25…1531backed Yes26c42,995$11,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,798.73650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+73.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2937…44b2backed Yes32c42,938$13,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,093.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+210.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x155c…1b09backed Yes38c42,938$16,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,769.482634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-22.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes50c42,649$21,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,363.737625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0915…67c3backed Yes38c42,525$16,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,183.621323.1%3 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc90a…b957backed Yes26c42,325$11,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,128.751330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+70.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9196…21d8backed Yes47c41,600$19,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,189.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+81.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.