World Politics · resolved market
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,736,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,986,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,736,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,969 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 42c | 577,707$243,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334,620.8 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…2ec3backed No | 6c | 458,750$25,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,726.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 30cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes | 58c | 292,123$170,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121,545.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9708…925bbacked Yes | 36c | 281,320$100,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180,876.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 24cpaid | +88.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 27c | 266,332$72,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193,791.27 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f9…7dd4backed Yes | 35c | 247,617$85,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161,898.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 63c | 242,964$153,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89,059.92 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 69c | 234,715$161,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,075.21 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 46c | 231,309$105,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125,329.05 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 1c | 228,543$2,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,413.78 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2f0…90fabacked Yes | 36c | 206,704$74,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132,060.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +176.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48cd…ab2ebacked Yes | 27c | 176,736$48,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128,721.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd8…773bbacked No | 1c | 168,129$2,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +201.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d60…03d8backed Yes | 24c | 163,528$39,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124,055.79 | 101 | 22.8%23 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…ef7bbacked Yes | 23c | 162,008$36,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125,150.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +684.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…1ea4backed Yes | 28c | 156,277$43,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112,568.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 38c | 148,326$56,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91,777.36 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…6bc0backed Yes | 15c | 146,227$22,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123,984.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…0e96backed Yes | 43c | 141,714$60,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,283.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 66c | 139,521$92,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92,111.46 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x56e9…b34cbacked Yes | 36c | 138,957$49,855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89,101.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…972bbacked No | 65c | 133,853$87,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87,180.22 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238c…5c20backed Yes | 30c | 131,696$39,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92,126.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 37c | 129,577$48,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,044.85 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b9…95fabacked Yes | 36c | 127,205$45,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,832.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4040…e8abbacked Yes | 18c | 125,493$22,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102,611.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x592a…4d2cbacked Yes | 36c | 125,334$44,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,445.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…ce1dbacked No | 1c | 124,489$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 50c | 123,545$62,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,365.92 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 52c | 117,746$61,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,763.34 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6441…139ebacked Yes | 23c | 114,610$26,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88,051.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 41c | 113,437$46,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66,460.6 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 30c | 110,452$32,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77,761.93 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dd…cd2abacked Yes | 33c | 108,989$36,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72,853.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +201.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc28e…99b5backed Yes | 32c | 108,175$34,191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,984.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1300…7ef4backed Yes | 21c | 106,887$22,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84,838.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 29c | 105,812$30,447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,364.12 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 32c | 103,376$32,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70,646.66 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.19per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x335a…430abacked Yes | 78c | 102,922$80,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,921.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 36c | 101,856$36,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,258.09 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 47c | 101,160$47,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,720.46 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes | 23c | 101,011$22,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,065.74 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…1e9abacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5c…aa0dbacked Yes | 43c | 100,000$43,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,905.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…6a76backed Yes | 74c | 95,718$70,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,321.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0be…3197backed Yes | 39c | 93,473$36,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,713.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5a…23e7backed No | 66c | 90,282$59,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59,586.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 37c | 82,953$30,421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,531.38 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 28c | 82,123$23,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,824.33 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…0843backed Yes | 41c | 80,951$33,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,407.79 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f75…0ac6backed Yes | 21c | 76,657$15,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,906.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 23c | 76,635$17,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58,806.51 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +11.0wins | +0.18per pick | 31cpaid | +90%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Yes | 37c | 75,990$27,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,156.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed No | 57c | 74,663$42,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,305.53 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…3572backed Yes | 69c | 73,735$50,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,855.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…ea77backed Yes | 30c | 71,893$21,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,315.22 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 55c | 70,000$38,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,696.53 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…3eaabacked Yes | 35c | 67,391$23,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,061.96 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 17c | 66,319$11,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,926.7 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aad…db06backed Yes | 36c | 66,265$24,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,189.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked No | 77c | 66,233$50,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,993.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.9wins | -0.43per pick | 66cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b57…4371backed Yes | 29c | 65,284$18,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46,472.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 43c | 63,711$27,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,453.6 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7034backed Yes | 20c | 62,500$12,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,110.6 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7c68backed No | 2c | 62,496$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 19c | 61,130$11,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,676.59 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe15b…620bbacked Yes | 21c | 60,708$12,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,003.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Yes | 31c | 59,251$18,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,049.89 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 46c | 57,673$26,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,989.24 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…5aa6backed Yes | 21c | 57,665$12,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,575.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed No | 29c | 55,154$15,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,839.77 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45e…605fbacked No | 52c | 54,964$28,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,807.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7f…99a1backed Yes | 23c | 54,951$12,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,317.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…858bbacked Yes | 23c | 54,713$12,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,084.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +333.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7747backed Yes | 27c | 53,842$14,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,165.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd9…544abacked Yes | 41c | 53,540$22,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,503.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…2f2fbacked Yes | 37c | 53,475$20,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,474.96 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aba…1a66backed No | 4c | 53,325$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…c4f8backed Yes | 37c | 51,045$18,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,262.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +206.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…83c9backed Yes | 45c | 50,529$22,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,869.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…cfc8backed Yes | 23c | 50,341$11,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,961.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…286dbacked Yes | 36c | 49,488$18,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,470.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…7a6fbacked Yes | 30c | 49,069$14,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,190.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +198.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c1…9648backed Yes | 22c | 48,082$10,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,339.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed No | 66c | 46,275$30,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,563.83 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 7c | 45,974$3,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,202.5 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…9452backed Yes | 34c | 45,832$15,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,091.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee0…589bbacked Yes | 16c | 45,328$7,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,075.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 48c | 44,532$21,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,241.7 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…37c7backed Yes | 60c | 44,118$26,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,600.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f94…380ebacked Yes | 36c | 44,000$15,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,160 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 57c | 43,840$24,852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,987.65 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…6bdbbacked Yes | 40c | 43,588$17,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,173.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 35cpaid | +110%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…1531backed Yes | 26c | 42,995$11,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,798.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2937…44b2backed Yes | 32c | 42,938$13,844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,093.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 38c | 42,938$16,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,769.48 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 50c | 42,649$21,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,363.73 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…67c3backed Yes | 38c | 42,525$16,341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,183.62 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc90a…b957backed Yes | 26c | 42,325$11,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,128.75 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…21d8backed Yes | 47c | 41,600$19,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,189.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?this page
- Will Adrian Zandberg be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Artur Bartoszewicz be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Grzegorz Braun be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Joanna Senyszyn be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Krzysztof Stanowski be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Maciej Maciak be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Magdalena Biejat be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Marek Woch be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Romuald Starosielec be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Szymon Hołownia be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland?No won
- Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.