TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5a06…201b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelenskyy meet with Netanyahu in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$329.7
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16,220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16,219.68
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$2,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$2,640
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,023Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+88.1%+$901.63
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,602Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$1,602.33
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$6,173Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,172.92
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$425Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$425
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$594Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$593.82
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,595Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,595.34
Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$114.86
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,690Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+55.1%+$1,483.12
Will Putin meet with Trump by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$624Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+100.2%+$625.51
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$2,175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,174.78
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,519.5
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17,332Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$17,332.44
Will Putin meet with Trump before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,165.83
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,033Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+62.9%+$650.31
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$550
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$44.44
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$8,478Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$8,478.14
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,447Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,446.81
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$7,325Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+769.8%+$56,383.28
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$259.85
All 23 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2040%8 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-18.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19,853Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19,853.11
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$39,291Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+56.6%+$22,223.1
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$422Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.61
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$3,275Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+71.4%+$2,336.8
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,982Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$5,079.18
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10,873Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10,872.57
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 16-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+66.7%+$12.8
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$3,243Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+63%+$2,043.64
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$600
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$263Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$263.4
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$314Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$314
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,595Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+58.2%+$2,093.32
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 15-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$310
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 8-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$311Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$311
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$322Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$322.32
Will Bitcoin reach $105k in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,009Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,009.37
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,912Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,912.39
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$701Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$701.29
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$5,342Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+259.9%+$13,883.9
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$8,156Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+83.5%+$6,811.43
All 20 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
France vs. England: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$3,229Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,229.28
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,250Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$2,750.13
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,462Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+515.2%+$12,682.02
England vs. Argentina: O/U 7.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$86.32
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$3,044Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,044.1
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$674Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$673.85
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$3,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,600
France vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+116.9%+$371.79
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,040Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,040
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$4,351Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$2,667.04
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,041Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+80.3%+$835.82
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$2,925Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$1,574.98
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Polish presidential election be between 70-72%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$393.84
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$499.39
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$2,935Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,935
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$1,532Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,532.31
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$380.08
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12,021Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$12,021.06
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11,454Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+433.7%+$49,676.59
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$2,431Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,431.38
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$2,874Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,874.22
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.46per pick29cpaid+236.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+97.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$2,320Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$1,680
Will Ukraine finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$79.7
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$4,107Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,106.79
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June  22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$325
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Moonbirds FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,561Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$1,560.75
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$405
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+309.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $330b and $340b on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+309.4%+$70.31
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.