Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5821602b440e61665dce5dcdc0fd20153864ba185d26a13e9be80fe98bb9e97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,653,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,807,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,653,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,822 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x805d…e14ebacked Yes | 3c | 536,144$13,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,537.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ec…6064backed Yes | 2c | 510,799$9,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,792.68 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -96.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes | 19c | 440,841$82,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82,789.4 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…7952backed Yes | 3c | 399,428$10,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 7c | 383,331$28,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,620.31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a7…629abacked Yes | 2c | 344,770$7,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,268.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…54edbacked Yes | 2c | 309,063$6,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,749.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa977…f43dbacked Yes | 3c | 279,523$7,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,439.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes | 9c | 263,107$24,822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,822.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66fd…01e6backed Yes | 1c | 225,182$3,270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,270.31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…0ffabacked Yes | 2c | 214,874$4,737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,737 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 29c | 184,750$53,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53,819.67 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…d9abbacked Yes | 3c | 171,532$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,999.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b3…6436backed Yes | 2c | 164,527$3,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 7c | 162,090$11,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,757.2 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5d…aefabacked Yes | 2c | 156,990$2,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,639.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 18c | 154,266$28,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,327.55 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef2…6d23backed Yes | 3c | 153,008$5,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,058.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 16c | 152,044$23,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,882.36 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 10c | 148,296$14,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,210.63 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…096fbacked Yes | 2c | 138,915$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d3…2136backed Yes | 2c | 135,915$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…a425backed Yes | 2c | 131,384$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc506…f854backed Yes | 2c | 115,577$2,545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,544.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…2403backed Yes | 3c | 112,748$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37db…35e4backed Yes | 2c | 109,168$2,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,623.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…74babacked Yes | 2c | 108,000$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d2…c168backed Yes | 2c | 103,122$2,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,185.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…436fbacked Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…12c2backed Yes | 2c | 97,854$2,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,166 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e6…4a5fbacked Yes | 2c | 96,984$2,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,053 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…da02backed Yes | 2c | 94,836$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,169.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091f…1b92backed Yes | 2c | 93,195$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,074 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1791…3ebcbacked Yes | 2c | 90,948$2,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,255.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…f794backed Yes | 2c | 86,842$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a9…dbcdbacked Yes | 2c | 86,707$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…a3abbacked Yes | 2c | 86,035$1,706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,706 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c6…9139backed Yes | 3c | 85,846$2,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,241.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…577fbacked Yes | 26c | 85,270$21,768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,768.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf7…a40abacked Yes | 2c | 82,525$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b0…c559backed Yes | 2c | 81,941$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 18c | 81,406$14,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,599.94 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54d9…d88cbacked Yes | 2c | 80,626$1,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,990 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…509cbacked No | 64c | 80,558$51,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,000.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc130…1bb6backed Yes | 36c | 80,558$29,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,000.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 80,250$7,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,191.49 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 1c | 79,726$976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975.76 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 3c | 78,554$2,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670.54 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…d1f7backed Yes | 2c | 70,280$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d7…e854backed Yes | 2c | 70,178$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a06…201bbacked Yes | 1c | 65,417$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…672dbacked Yes | 2c | 64,501$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 18c | 62,367$11,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,444.83 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf383…1994backed Yes | 2c | 62,016$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 3c | 61,240$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e5…c253backed Yes | 1c | 60,960$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…763fbacked Yes | 2c | 60,912$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2e…1bf9backed Yes | 2c | 60,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes | 14c | 58,811$8,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,077.75 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc386…86d7backed Yes | 2c | 58,186$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc4…a880backed Yes | 2c | 57,500$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7df…64c5backed Yes | 2c | 57,009$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce32…3a32backed Yes | 2c | 56,806$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…18a3backed Yes | 1c | 56,614$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…62abbacked Yes | 4c | 56,106$2,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,146.48 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97f4…097bbacked Yes | 2c | 55,573$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…24afbacked Yes | 2c | 53,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…02c8backed Yes | 2c | 53,790$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…f347backed Yes | 7c | 52,826$3,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,839.58 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…dc8abacked Yes | 0c | 52,200$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…d154backed Yes | 21c | 51,922$10,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,683.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9921…6258backed Yes | 3c | 50,149$1,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…df02backed Yes | 2c | 50,105$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f37…7920backed Yes | 2c | 50,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa275…c758backed Yes | 2c | 50,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…ce36backed Yes | 27c | 50,000$13,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,599.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…b79abacked Yes | 2c | 49,400$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…45f0backed Yes | 12c | 49,002$6,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,043.46 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc04d…f8fdbacked Yes | 2c | 48,920$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f7…e8d6backed Yes | 2c | 48,526$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c71…d035backed Yes | 2c | 48,510$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 14c | 47,064$6,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,789.15 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 22c | 47,007$10,214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,214.04 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…3d19backed Yes | 2c | 46,202$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8f…854abacked Yes | 11c | 45,544$4,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,947.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf661…2dccbacked Yes | 2c | 45,027$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0a…1085backed Yes | 2c | 43,696$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…b7d2backed Yes | 2c | 42,583$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…ef9cbacked Yes | 2c | 42,500$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b3…7572backed Yes | 2c | 42,097$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Yes | 20c | 42,080$8,610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,610.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 6c | 42,000$2,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,547.15 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb8…8bd8backed Yes | 2c | 41,983$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0aa…75acbacked Yes | 2c | 41,030$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…f268backed Yes | 2c | 40,982$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 35c | 40,544$14,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,149.34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc5…8079backed Yes | 2c | 40,263$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd474…40c8backed Yes | 2c | 40,213$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…72a1backed Yes | 2c | 40,050$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…a4b7backed Yes | 3c | 40,034$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.