TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,653,202
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,807,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,653,202 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,822 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x805d…e14ebacked Yes3c536,144$13,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,537.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes2c510,799$9,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,792.68352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes19c440,841$82,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82,789.44820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc5…7952backed Yes3c399,428$10,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Yes7c383,331$28,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,620.3190%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a7…629abacked Yes2c344,770$7,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,268.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe92e…54edbacked Yes2c309,063$6,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,749.5220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa977…f43dbacked Yes3c279,523$7,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,439.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed Yes9c263,107$24,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,822.08911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-85.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x66fd…01e6backed Yes1c225,182$3,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,270.3180%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fc…0ffabacked Yes2c214,874$4,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,73710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c91…9af7backed Yes29c184,750$53,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,819.671631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58e…d9abbacked Yes3c171,532$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b3…6436backed Yes2c164,527$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,40040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes7c162,090$11,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,757.2303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd5d…aefabacked Yes2c156,990$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.9170%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes18c154,266$28,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,327.552934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1ef2…6d23backed Yes3c153,008$5,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,058.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes16c152,044$23,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,882.362429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes10c148,296$14,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,210.63166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-80.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb077…096fbacked Yes2c138,915$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,70040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02d3…2136backed Yes2c135,915$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.6330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4846…a425backed Yes2c131,384$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc506…f854backed Yes2c115,577$2,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,544.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0546…2403backed Yes3c112,748$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37db…35e4backed Yes2c109,168$2,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,623.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55c…74babacked Yes2c108,000$2,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.8170%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9d2…c168backed Yes2c103,122$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,185.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0097…436fbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6c0…12c2backed Yes2c97,854$2,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,16610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e6…4a5fbacked Yes2c96,984$2,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac51…da02backed Yes2c94,836$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,169.5540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x091f…1b92backed Yes2c93,195$2,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,07410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1791…3ebcbacked Yes2c90,948$2,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,255.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99be…f794backed Yes2c86,842$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4a9…dbcdbacked Yes2c86,707$2,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,112.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe57c…a3abbacked Yes2c86,035$1,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17c6…9139backed Yes3c85,846$2,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffca…577fbacked Yes26c85,270$21,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,768.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf7…a40abacked Yes2c82,525$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,503.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33b0…c559backed Yes2c81,941$2,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,002.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes18c81,406$14,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,599.942516%4 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-70.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54d9…d88cbacked Yes2c80,626$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b0d…509cbacked No64c80,558$51,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,000.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc130…1bb6backed Yes36c80,558$29,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,000.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes9c80,250$7,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,191.4910420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes1c79,726$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$975.762917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-38.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes3c78,554$2,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,670.54100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bba…d1f7backed Yes2c70,280$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0d7…e854backed Yes2c70,178$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a06…201bbacked Yes1c65,417$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d82…672dbacked Yes2c64,501$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes18c62,367$11,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,444.831216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-73.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf383…1994backed Yes2c62,016$1,271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,27120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes3c61,240$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-52.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e5…c253backed Yes1c60,960$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c98…763fbacked Yes2c60,912$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a2e…1bf9backed Yes2c60,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…5a82backed Yes14c58,811$8,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,077.752123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc386…86d7backed Yes2c58,186$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc4…a880backed Yes2c57,500$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.52737%10 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7df…64c5backed Yes2c57,009$1,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce32…3a32backed Yes2c56,806$908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02f5…18a3backed Yes1c56,614$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61950%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked Yes4c56,106$2,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,146.482213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97f4…097bbacked Yes2c55,573$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b79…24afbacked Yes2c53,999$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733b…02c8backed Yes2c53,790$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bed…f347backed Yes7c52,826$3,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,839.58137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-85.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1889…dc8abacked Yes0c52,200$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df7…d154backed Yes21c51,922$10,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,683.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9921…6258backed Yes3c50,149$1,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x778c…df02backed Yes2c50,105$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f37…7920backed Yes2c50,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa275…c758backed Yes2c50,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad14…ce36backed Yes27c50,000$13,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,599.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9c8…b79abacked Yes2c49,400$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$949.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed Yes12c49,002$6,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,043.462536%9 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc04d…f8fdbacked Yes2c48,920$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f7…e8d6backed Yes2c48,526$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c71…d035backed Yes2c48,510$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.9320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes14c47,064$6,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,789.151921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes22c47,007$10,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,214.042010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9be2…3d19backed Yes2c46,202$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$760.6440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d8f…854abacked Yes11c45,544$4,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,947.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf661…2dccbacked Yes2c45,027$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0a…1085backed Yes2c43,696$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56ff…b7d2backed Yes2c42,583$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…ef9cbacked Yes2c42,500$1,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5b3…7572backed Yes2c42,097$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Yes20c42,080$8,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,610.2680%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes6c42,000$2,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,547.153315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2bb8…8bd8backed Yes2c41,983$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0aa…75acbacked Yes2c41,030$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7b…f268backed Yes2c40,982$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.8770%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed Yes35c40,544$14,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,149.341136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc5…8079backed Yes2c40,263$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd474…40c8backed Yes2c40,213$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c7…72a1backed Yes2c40,050$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ae0…a4b7backed Yes3c40,034$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.