TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,089,575
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,152,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,089,575 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 614 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes0c1,396,154$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,296.152619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93f8…f5c3backed Yes0c996,746$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,27090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc4…a880backed Yes0c978,372$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.372737%10 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd5d…aefabacked Yes0c870,962$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,026.5470%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32d4…ad3cbacked Yes0c464,896$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes0c453,500$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,034.52910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3726…8f92backed Yes0c448,570$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.1440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b3…6436backed Yes0c387,483$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbb…7cdbbacked Yes0c343,859$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes2c304,385$4,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,596.082429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f3…19d7backed Yes0c299,940$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e7b…97adbacked Yes0c222,482$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.9630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde24…25a8backed Yes0c216,754$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,032.47345.9%2 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-71.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes4c215,060$8,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,118.32010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ce…422abacked Yes0c210,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9268…3409backed Yes0c203,070$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.1460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Yes3c200,000$5,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,991.7880%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes4c186,935$7,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,488.5580%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9be2…3d19backed Yes0c185,363$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.0940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes1c152,090$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920.82303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…0d31backed Yes0c150,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes2c134,414$2,534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,534.06280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3779…0f80backed Yes0c126,669$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.671330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+31.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd782…9285backed Yes0c119,812$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.2990%0 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeabd…0477backed Yes0c118,566$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd8b…d89dbacked Yes2c110,000$2,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,131.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df7…d154backed Yes5c108,289$5,949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,948.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d0…de55backed Yes5c102,448$5,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,304.811225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9c2…5cc4backed Yes0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e5…c253backed Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f1e…2465backed Yes0c99,950$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b83…7fb5backed Yes1c98,692$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff8…7e6dbacked Yes1c86,065$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15d8…1461backed Yes0c86,000$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0107…7ec3backed Yes1c84,521$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.4728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-56.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e9…df05backed Yes0c84,147$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf29b…011dbacked Yes0c84,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8470%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e64…2190backed Yes3c79,938$2,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,670.0550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd856…a5afbacked Yes1c78,963$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.2750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec95…5192backed Yes1c76,517$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9921…6258backed Yes0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x941d…f382backed Yes0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c10…1968backed Yes0c75,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9c…31a0backed Yes3c72,500$1,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9554820.8%10 W · 38 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4690…f097backed Yes0c69,270$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc923…4a9abacked Yes0c69,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6980%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c21…2a53backed Yes2c68,937$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68560%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3497…e9babacked Yes0c68,835$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.6750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fd…01e6backed Yes0c64,283$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.8580%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c64,100$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.1525.8%3 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid-61.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes9c61,797$5,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,423.65028%14 W · 36 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf98…f72abacked Yes0c59,067$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4740%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ff…3d18backed Yes0c58,333$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8f3…3d8abacked Yes2c58,216$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-80.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf446…6aa9backed Yes1c55,783$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffca…577fbacked Yes6c55,692$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8f…34c6backed Yes1c55,260$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.911931.6%6 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-46.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8f7…c44ebacked Yes0c54,500$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…096fbacked Yes0c53,715$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c52,963$1,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,843.2960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b0a…1085backed Yes0c52,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…eeffbacked Yes0c51,677$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde7b…f268backed Yes0c51,125$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf74…dff1backed Yes0c50,335$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a4c…8a04backed Yes1c50,251$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.61224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-93.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes0c50,194$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.832917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-38.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2ad1…d070backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eca…63a9backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc06d…13a4backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdb6…9452backed Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100200%0 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x49db…2019backed Yes1c49,993$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.9185.6%1 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-79%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0bd…d079backed Yes0c49,490$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.98100%0 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1be9…c41cbacked Yes0c48,500$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34ac…6e16backed Yes1c46,647$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.65110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb065…d73dbacked Yes0c46,000$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c45,468$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.12714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58e…d9abbacked Yes0c45,017$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.0560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f37…7920backed Yes0c44,843$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a9c…748cbacked Yes2c44,566$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5d…c775backed Yes1c44,482$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78fa…c637backed Yes4c43,943$1,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,745.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes1c43,000$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.313315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bf8…fb62backed Yes2c42,997$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.591811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-71.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes1c42,330$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.628924.7%22 W · 67 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99be…f794backed Yes0c40,855$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc428…79eebacked Yes0c40,695$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.03140%0 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92a3…b526backed Yes5c40,315$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,914.83425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-65.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd474…40c8backed Yes0c40,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb21d…21e4backed Yes0c39,719$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8364…2c70backed Yes4c39,076$1,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a0…0e91backed Yes4c38,955$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.8270%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes1c38,333$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.93340%0 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6796…7360backed Yes0c37,807$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2026…bd92backed Yes0c35,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc2…32eebacked Yes3c35,000$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41c1…f3eebacked Yes1c34,479$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf3…ddd7backed Yes0c33,500$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02d3…2136backed Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes0c33,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a8…cb8cbacked Yes2c33,205$685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.2820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.