TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,629,388
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,455,155

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,629,388 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3779…0f80backed No1c905,506$7,656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,656.231330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+31.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No4c440,844$19,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,790.126421.9%14 W · 50 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed No9c418,162$35,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,862.9990%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5d…cc80backed No11c417,678$45,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,334.22911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-85.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71ed…d338backed Yes79c412,135$325,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,027.072231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-34%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93f8…f5c3backed No2c399,813$9,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,432.3790%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed No6c389,566$22,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,616.74130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes76c333,572$252,443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81,129.61376.9%10 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Yes68c270,805$183,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,135.341681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed No2c245,592$4,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,757.78352.9%1 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-96.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b3…6436backed No2c188,848$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ef2…6d23backed No2c188,501$4,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,574.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f3…108bbacked No2c172,148$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,99060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No11c149,673$16,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,536.6166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick18cpaid-80.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40b0…1f0abacked No2c131,277$2,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,852.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd5d…aefabacked No7c123,199$8,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,143.7670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f1…c25abacked No2c110,853$2,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,290.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c07…5214backed No1c103,462$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,486.0380%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d50…7058backed No2c94,282$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,168.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No20c92,407$18,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,133.791833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d6a…18e9backed Yes67c90,132$60,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,743.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ec…157fbacked No33c90,124$29,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,740.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a21…fb6cbacked No7c88,756$6,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,379.79100%0 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No25c87,201$22,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,094.512429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No11c85,949$9,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,239.4710420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec2…d3a5backed No2c80,164$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.7990%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x107c…491bbacked No1c80,097$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b7…ff46backed No10c65,941$6,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,509.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d0…de55backed No10c65,622$6,249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,249.291225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf98…f72abacked No1c62,308$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.4440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed No5c56,257$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700.343423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-53.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed No16c53,605$8,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,819.1980%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No17c52,366$8,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,996.631921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e7b…97adbacked No2c52,356$1,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.2230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a28…da50backed No2c52,267$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.7260%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6028…10eebacked No2c51,121$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4574…0b7abacked No2c49,993$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,186.3350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f68…62abbacked No9c40,429$3,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,505.312213.6%3 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeea…ca3fbacked No2c40,305$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2bb8…8bd8backed No2c40,136$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed No21c37,323$7,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,660.752536%9 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-27.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fdc…3ad2backed No5c37,162$1,947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,947.26100%0 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb669…322cbacked No2c36,339$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdc4…a880backed No2c35,277$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.982737%10 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x10ac…e8d2backed No2c34,099$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4998…f311backed No2c31,579$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9268…3409backed No2c30,309$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.0160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb934…ab24backed No2c30,000$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9d5…4739backed No2c29,019$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.5450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa115…277fbacked No2c27,737$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.0830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbb…7cdbbacked No2c26,867$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No5c25,789$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,383.9303.3%1 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-92.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09c1…c6d5backed No2c25,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe810…8fc5backed No17c24,320$4,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,228.2550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8b5…280cbacked No1c23,846$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes78c23,522$18,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,266.622030%6 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c6…fa1dbacked No2c23,206$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f7a…d04fbacked No2c23,017$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2454…2ab5backed No2c22,727$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e7f…b1d4backed No24c22,483$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,500425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…1f3cbacked No2c21,918$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No13c21,350$2,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,701.73315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-76%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4376…d0dfbacked No0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No2c20,500$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.53545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes67c20,443$13,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,779.124151.2%21 W · 20 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x198e…dd73backed No2c20,424$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf645…0d16backed No3c20,400$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No6c20,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2002240.9%9 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcc3…648ebacked No1c20,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22060%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x36cc…8642backed No18c20,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,60030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed No22c19,670$4,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,334.832516%4 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-70.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No16c19,165$3,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,098.116717.9%12 W · 55 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-65.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94be…aeb5backed Yes74c18,649$13,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,840.33850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5b9…f10cbacked No2c18,622$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9a2…3782backed No2c18,400$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac73…037bbacked No2c17,892$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x626c…288dbacked No2c17,737$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb6f…fe11backed No9c17,307$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…5fb6backed No45c16,581$7,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,410.392010%2 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed No5c16,560$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b39…bc0dbacked No2c16,136$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.7120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e59…9247backed No2c15,789$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes67c15,220$10,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,094.661216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-73.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9b9…c2b6backed No15c14,600$2,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,244.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…e90dbacked No28c14,446$3,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,989.69911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-77.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d1…4b1abacked No2c14,353$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed No9c14,113$1,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.254415.9%7 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d40…ec52backed Yes77c13,846$10,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,155.191361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b35…389ebacked No2c13,185$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed Yes77c13,000$10,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9301172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.24per pick49cpaid+40.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf42…1a14backed No2c12,751$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c12,731$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214960%0 W · 96 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No14c12,343$1,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,684.563026.7%8 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+42.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes65c12,295$7,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,306.468132.1%26 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe24…5089backed No2c12,155$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes66c11,792$7,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,020.658953.9%48 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa323…b4c8backed No2c11,604$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e05…01cdbacked No0c11,389$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2ff…ed95backed No2c11,039$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.4320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc97…0238backed No2c10,950$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21980%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.