TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,000,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,194,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,000,662 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 301 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x02d3…2136backed Yes0c2,402,123$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,413.6530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes1c1,390,040$7,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,474.34320%0 W · 32 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc4…a880backed Yes0c1,194,540$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.542737%10 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93f8…f5c3backed Yes0c1,176,357$2,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,29090%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c1,132,472$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,662.36244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f3…108bbacked Yes0c999,000$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes0c977,210$1,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.212619.2%5 W · 21 L+0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid-60.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c71…d035backed Yes0c832,948$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.3220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes1c489,522$3,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,264.921010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-82.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed Yes0c449,780$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.121346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6df…f7a7backed Yes1c314,589$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.8280%0 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3779…0f80backed Yes0c250,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501330.8%4 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick15cpaid+31.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b3…6436backed Yes0c246,437$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e2…6a84backed Yes1c208,590$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed Yes0c197,569$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.2780%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes1c192,569$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,155.56137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a6a…0aadbacked Yes1c174,032$1,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,769.8560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ef…c62ebacked Yes1c173,648$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes0c161,000$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1611910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-38.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x552c…0d31backed Yes0c157,220$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.5730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…8003backed Yes1c135,994$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes0c123,246$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.742910.3%3 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-78.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Yes0c120,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-73.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06ff…3d18backed Yes0c107,751$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9be2…3d19backed Yes0c104,820$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.8240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ddb…c363backed Yes0c104,622$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bb4…acb6backed Yes2c103,349$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,155.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes1c100,700$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.42917.2%5 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-38.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc165…480dbacked Yes1c100,535$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36f6…237cbacked Yes1c100,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x485a…8d5ebacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10070%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes0c100,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5218…5c3abacked Yes0c100,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb375…f802backed Yes0c99,000$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19870%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad1…d070backed Yes0c91,000$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf29b…011dbacked Yes0c85,000$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8fc…eeffbacked Yes0c75,392$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e7b…97adbacked Yes0c75,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb065…d73dbacked Yes0c75,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ddd…b0debacked Yes0c72,970$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes0c69,305$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6340%0 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af8…21b0backed Yes1c60,048$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf98…f72abacked Yes0c57,057$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0e5…c253backed Yes0c56,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb077…096fbacked Yes0c50,155$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbf…83bfbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick3cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc619…9dc7backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c2…41bebacked Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-48.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed Yes0c50,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36d1…4b1abacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52a6…77d4backed Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x583b…729fbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c6f…6da8backed Yes1c50,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d09…1714backed Yes1c41,814$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.850%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8620…5062backed Yes1c41,372$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes1c40,988$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.832714.8%4 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71a8…6b5ebacked Yes0c40,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x107c…491bbacked Yes0c37,250$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76c2…09b0backed Yes1c36,014$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0750%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84e…a97cbacked Yes0c35,000$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9105…4c47backed Yes0c34,363$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.45160%0 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e4…be2abacked Yes1c32,363$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43070%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf9…0a84backed Yes0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c03…7defbacked Yes0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd423…ef9cbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc04…7f2ebacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea9…1978backed Yes1c28,333$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes0c27,500$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c27,324$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3310%0 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2426…acf0backed Yes0c26,970$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…9a01backed Yes0c25,960$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd428…92d8backed Yes0c25,370$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x861a…9d0dbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x629b…c3bcbacked Yes0c25,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7a0…e570backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cd5…5683backed Yes0c25,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e1…89d9backed Yes1c25,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca40…aeb1backed Yes0c24,713$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c6…f8a7backed Yes0c23,960$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c1…39fbbacked Yes0c23,030$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68f9…0be1backed Yes1c21,652$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa112…4150backed Yes1c20,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x277a…2b99backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca71…b2c7backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb15a…35d9backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f6c…465dbacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8735…46e5backed Yes0c20,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2381…81d1backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x49b7…07a1backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad30…2697backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35a2…5141backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1860%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8f…35fbbacked Yes0c17,875$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcae9…0cf3backed Yes0c17,500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1439…5051backed Yes1c17,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8146…b0efbacked Yes0c16,667$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Yes0c16,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32e4…f250backed Yes0c15,700$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2093…04e7backed Yes1c15,636$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+113.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8898…3395backed Yes0c15,610$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6140%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb40…965dbacked Yes0c15,170$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.