TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1e05…01cd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
63
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 61 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST1942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$112.56
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$178.82
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$7,881Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,880.81
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,033Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$344.3
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$383Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$277.29
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$635Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$634.63
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$409Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$408.83
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$2,019Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,018.67
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT+258.3%+$2,583.14
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$1,396Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT+432.8%+$6,041.65
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$206.21
Over 236.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,428Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,428
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,310Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$509.44
Over 227.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$999.54
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)backed Favorite · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+63.6%+$635.85
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,491Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+49.4%+$737.01
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)backed Favorite · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Over 202.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$250
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,246Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$1,008.98
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 40 or more times during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+614.3%+$122.86
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 20 or more times during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+271.1%+$108.44
Will Jerome Powell say "Overreact" during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 50 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Jerome Powell say "inflation" 60 or more times during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Jerome Powell say "Quantitative Tightening" during the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Jerome Powell say "unemployment" 8 or more times during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Jerome Powell say "immigrant" or "immigration" during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during the May meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2025, EDT1090%9 W · 1 L+3.5wins+0.35per pick55cpaid+68.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump say "Governor" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+57.5%+$17.81
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 3+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+57.7%+$73.33
Will Trump say "Ozempic" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$77
Will Trump say "Obama" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+103.8%+$70.56
Will Trump say "Percent" 7+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$39.54
Will Trump say "FDA" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+32.3%+$25.19
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+133.1%+$43.93
Will Trump say "India" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$34.48
Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$41.28
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2025, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+43.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$404.64
Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+98.3%+$98.28
Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.03
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+38.4%+$38.44
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$33.32
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+307%+$70.6
Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+25%+$25
Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+28.1%+$28.05
All 9 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Muhammad vs. Della Maddalenabacked Muhammad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$343
Shevchenko vs. Fiorotbacked Shevchenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$2,150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+31.9%+$685.1
Aldo vs. Zahabibacked Aldo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Grasso vs. Silvabacked Silva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$81.69
Malott vs. Radtkebacked Malott · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$89.86
All 5 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,195Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT+45.3%+$541.86
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance)backed Arsenal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Osasuna vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST+58.7%+$74.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,586Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+42.2%+$1,091.87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.46
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Brewers vs. Guardiansbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$360.11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.