World Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3231de45d5bb27fe8ef1c216530c4e7e674797bc47a598e8178d006e43f0f245
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd2c…b2c6backed No | 26c | 980$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc0…b57bbacked Yes | 74c | 490$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…b933backed No | 29c | 485$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 27c | 380.61$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ca…e168backed No | 29c | 340$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb1…0ffdbacked Yes | 67c | 323.34$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 22c | 313.94$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…8dfcbacked Yes | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 66 | 48.5%32 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…5cc9backed Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3a…236cbacked Yes | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…d72fbacked Yes | 74c | 270$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed No | 40c | 248$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…16edbacked Yes | 62c | 244.73$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.73 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 68c | 218.64$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79e…1adcbacked Yes | 74c | 205$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 11c | 200$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5df…15edbacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 69c | 199.99$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 32c | 183.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…5233backed No | 29c | 170$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…44a4backed Yes | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e05…01cdbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 34c | 121.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf81b…89b1backed No | 23c | 108.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa946…fa19backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 77c | 70.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 140 | 33.6%47 W · 93 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…49e4backed Yes | 72c | 69.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 69.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 21c | 66.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +75%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510d…659bbacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x501f…f746backed No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +258.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…8e66backed No | 27c | 62.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9e…3723backed Yes | 71c | 56.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d25…4f9fbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…9969backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 22c | 46.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 41.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2b…a68bbacked Yes | 80c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacad…3a3abacked Yes | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 52c | 34.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c2…56b5backed Yes | 79c | 30.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0730…ababbacked Yes | 79c | 29.11$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fe…153abacked Yes | 79c | 26.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…8ef2backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 78c | 21.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c53…757dbacked Yes | 79c | 21.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…4484backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da5…bd38backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c2…3888backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0239…9e53backed Yes | 79c | 16.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?this page
- Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Cheat" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Deficit" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Farmer" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Governor" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Greenland" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Medical" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ripped" or "Ripping" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Roof" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Ship" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Steel" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tom" or "Homan" during Carney visit on May 6?No won
- Will Trump say "Trudeau" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during Carney visit on May 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.